BJRI: Future Leadership And Margin Expansion Will Drive Measured Recovery

Analysts have reduced their price target for BJ's Restaurants to $38.14 from $38.83. This adjustment reflects mixed views on near-term sales trends and margin improvement opportunities.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst research on BJ's Restaurants reflects a balanced mix of optimism and caution, with key themes emerging on both sides of the outlook.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see the company's risk/reward profile as compelling at current trading levels, citing attractive valuation relative to growth prospects.
• There is confidence that new leadership can drive operational improvements and strategic initiatives, which could support future sales momentum.
• Upcoming sales catalysts are expected to boost near-term revenue and help the company outperform broader industry trends.
• Opportunities for continued margin expansion are seen as a catalyst for earnings growth and improved profitability over the medium term.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts are cautious on near-term same-store sales performance, citing softer industry demand and tougher year-over-year comparisons.
• There are concerns that the boost from recent promotions, such as the Pizookie Meal Deal, may be difficult to lap and could weigh on comparable sales growth.
• The rapid pace of expected margin improvement is viewed skeptically by some, with uncertainty around the sustainability of cost controls and pricing initiatives.
• Lowered price targets indicate that some analysts see limited upside potential in the shares until there is clearer evidence of sustained sales acceleration.

What's in the News

• BJ's Restaurants provided earnings guidance for fiscal year 2025, projecting comparable restaurant sales growth of approximately 2 percent and restaurant-level operating profit between $211 million and $219 million (Key Developments).
• Between July 2, 2025 and September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 996,000 shares for $33.2 million. This completed a total buyback of over 15.4 million shares for $577.28 million under its ongoing repurchase program (Key Developments).
• In October 2025, BJ's Restaurants increased the authorization for its equity buyback plan by $75 million. This raised the total authorization to $675 million (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target: Decreased slightly from $38.83 to $38.14, reflecting a more cautious near-term outlook.
• Discount Rate: Declined from 10.23 percent to 9.78 percent. This indicates a modest reduction in perceived risk.
• Revenue Growth: Increased from 2.53 percent to 3.00 percent, signaling improved expectations for top-line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Edged down from 4.32 percent to 4.16 percent. This suggests slightly softer profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E: Decreased from 16.15x to 15.18x, implying a lower valuation multiple for projected earnings.