Update shared on23 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 8.27%The average analyst price target for BJ's Restaurants has decreased from $42.33 to $38.83. Analysts cite softer industry sales trends and modestly lower growth and margins ahead of the next earnings report.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research notes present a mixed outlook for BJ's Restaurants ahead of its upcoming earnings report, highlighting both momentum from operational improvements and ongoing industry challenges.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts point to continued operational improvement, with margin gains driven by recent strategic initiatives.
- Key financial metrics, including adjusted EPS and AEBITDA, have surpassed consensus estimates. This indicates strong execution.
- The company has implemented a value platform aimed at driving customer traffic. This is viewed as a winning strategy for future growth.
- Upgrades to Buy reflect confidence in management’s ability to sustain margin progress and build on recent positive trends.
- Bearish analysts have lowered price targets, citing expectations that same-store sales may miss forecasts due to softer industry trends.
- Comparisons with the previous year’s Pizookie Meal Deal launch could make near-term growth more challenging.
- There is concern over modestly lower growth and profitability margins as the company navigates a cooling restaurant sector.
- Market headwinds and fading pandemic-related tailwinds may increase pressure on overall valuation and future earnings performance.
What's in the News
- From April 2, 2025 to July 1, 2025, BJ's Restaurants repurchased 438,211 shares, representing 1.95% of shares, for $15.13 million. This marks the completion of 14,460,534 shares repurchased, or 61.52%, totaling $544.08 million under the ongoing buyback program announced in 2014. (Company filing)
- BJ's Restaurants issued earnings guidance for 2025, stating they expect comparable restaurant sales growth of approximately 2%. (Company guidance)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen to $38.83 from $42.33, reflecting reduced expectations for future share price appreciation.
- Discount Rate decreased slightly, moving from 10.29% to 10.23%. This suggests a marginally lower perceived risk or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth forecast declined to 2.53% from 2.77%, indicating tempered expectations for sales expansion.
- Net Profit Margin projection narrowed modestly, dropping to 4.32% from 4.39%. This points to lower anticipated profitability.
- Future P/E ratio estimate contracted from 17.21x to 16.15x, signaling a somewhat more cautious outlook for earnings valuation.
Disclaimer
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