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The analyst price target for On Holding was revised downward by $0.72 to $66.04. Analysts cite concerns about slower growth and increased competition, even as strong performance continues.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts offered a range of perspectives on On Holding's prospects, with several revising their target prices and outlooks in light of the company's recent performance and competitive landscape.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts remain optimistic about On Holding's ability to deliver revenue and EBITDA outperformance. They highlight the company's prudent forward guidance and recent quarterly beats.
• There are expectations for continued organic sales growth, with notable strength in the Americas region contributing to an expansion of the company's valuation multiple.
• Some analysts anticipate that as On continues to produce "beat and raise" quarters, its position with investors could strengthen and support higher target valuations.
• Recent revisions to estimates reflect confidence in the company's brand momentum and execution in a competitive athletic footwear market.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts cite concerns that sales growth may have peaked. They expect a slowdown in U.S. store expansion and moderating wholesale orders in coming years.
• The company's high pricing and relatively narrow product assortment are seen as potential constraints on market share expansion and total addressable market size.
• Increased competition from established players, particularly in team sports, is viewed as a headwind to sustained high growth rates and could weigh on investor risk perception.
• Some price target reductions reflect rising caution regarding product diversification risks and the potential impact of competitors reasserting themselves in key channels.

What's in the News

• On Holding AG raised its full-year 2025 earnings guidance, expecting net sales to increase at least 31% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. This is an update from the prior outlook of at least 28%.
• At current exchange rates, reported net sales are forecasted to reach at least CHF 2.91 billion, compared to the previous guidance of CHF 2.86 billion. (Company guidance)
• The company anticipates a gross profit margin in the range of 60.5 to 61.0%, which is a slight improvement from previous expectations of 60.0 to 60.5%. (Company guidance)
• Management notes that outlook and guidance remain conservative given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased modestly from $66.76 to $66.04.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly from 7.97% to 8.05%.
• Revenue Growth forecast has edged down marginally from 22.90% to 22.88%.
• Net Profit Margin estimate has declined fractionally from 11.12% to 11.12%.
• Future P/E Ratio has fallen significantly from 50.31x to 39.88x.