Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Analysts remain divided on On Holding's outlook, with bullish sentiment driven by consistent revenue and earnings beats fueling optimism for valuation upside, while bearish concerns focus on slowing U.S. growth and market saturation risks, resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of $65.86.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts see potential for On's valuation multiple to expand as the company consistently delivers revenue and earnings beats alongside upward guidance revisions.
- Revenue and EBITDA outperformance, along with prudent guidance, have led to upward revisions in future estimates and more optimistic price targets among bullish analysts.
- Bearish analysts foresee 2025 as a peak for On's sales growth, with a pronounced slowdown expected thereafter due to decelerating U.S. store expansions and retailer focus shifting back toward competitors like Nike.
- Concerns exist regarding On's premium pricing and limited product assortment, which are seen as constraints on the company’s total addressable market and future expansion potential.
- Bearish analysts expect On’s valuation to moderate as growth slows and anticipate softer retailer sell-in levels in the years ahead.
What's in the News
- Raised full-year 2025 earnings guidance, with expected net sales growth of at least 31% year-over-year (up from at least 28%) and gross profit margin projected between 60.5-61.0% (up from 60.0-60.5%).
- Added to multiple Russell indexes including the Russell 1000, 3000, Midcap, Small Cap Completeness, and associated Growth and Dynamic benchmarks.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for On Holding
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $65.86.
- The Future P/E for On Holding has significantly risen from 39.91x to 49.62x.
- The Discount Rate for On Holding remained effectively unchanged, at 7.96%.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.