Update shared on 08 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.82%Carrier Global's analyst price target has been revised down from $74.29 to $72.94, as analysts cite ongoing headwinds in U.S. RHVAC sales and a slightly weaker profit margin outlook, both impacting near-term earnings expectations.
Analyst Commentary
Recent price target adjustments for Carrier Global reflect a mixed outlook among Wall Street analysts, balancing the company’s resilient segments against noticeable ongoing headwinds.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts remain constructive on Carrier Global’s long-term prospects. They emphasize continued strong performance in commercial HVAC and aftermarket services as supportive of future upside.
- Management’s expectations of aggressive channel restocking through the fourth quarter could reduce excess field inventory to multi-year lows. This may position the company for improved operating leverage in coming periods.
- Despite short-term turbulence, persistent growth in non-residential markets is viewed as a stabilizing force and seen as supporting the company's valuation into 2026 and beyond.
- Bearish analysts note that U.S. residential HVAC sales are trending below prior expectations. This is weighing on near-term revenue growth and creating earnings headwinds for key segments.
- Profit margin outlooks have softened, with estimates for 2025 EPS now reduced due to the likelihood of guidance cuts accompanying the next quarterly results.
- The outlook for fleet and pricing headwinds remains challenging, particularly regarding the CSA segment. This leads to cautious sentiment around execution and margin recovery.
What's in the News
- Carrier Global updated its 2025 earnings guidance and lowered expected sales from $23.0 billion to $22.0 billion. (Company Statement)
- The company's equity buyback plan authority increased by $5.0 billion, bringing the total authorization to $12.1 billion. (Company Announcement)
- Carrier completed the repurchase of over 106 million shares for $6.29 billion as part of its ongoing buyback program. (Company Record)
- Carrier began field trials of battery-enabled HVAC systems in partnership with utilities to test energy storage and grid flexibility solutions. (Company Update)
- A major upgrade to the Abound Insights platform was introduced, with advanced AI-powered features to help building operators improve efficiency and maintenance. (Product Launch)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased from $74.29 to $72.94, reflecting a modest downward revision.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.70% to 9.01%, suggesting a marginally higher risk premium applied in the new valuation.
- Revenue Growth assumption has increased from 4.06% to 4.20%, indicating modestly improved sales expectations going forward.
- Net Profit Margin has fallen from 12.58% to 11.58%, showing a reduction in projected profitability for the business.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased from 21.75x to 22.77x, which points to a higher valuation multiple for future earnings, even as margins soften.
Disclaimer
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