AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for CARR

Carrier Global's analyst price target has been reduced from $76.18 to $74.29. Analysts cite softer U.S. residential HVAC demand and lowered earnings outlooks based on recent industry trends and updates from the company.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst updates on Carrier Global reflect a mix of confidence in the company’s long-term potential and caution regarding short-term headwinds. Key insights are summarized below.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts remain optimistic about Carrier's long-term growth. They highlight continuing strength in the commercial HVAC and aftermarket segments, which are expected to provide lasting upside into and beyond 2026.
• Management anticipates aggressive channel restocking through the fourth quarter. Field inventory is projected to reach multi-year lows by year-end, which could pave the way for improved future sales volumes.
• Despite downward revisions to near-term guidance, the company maintains a favorable outlook for recovery in core markets and ongoing support for its valuation through diversified business segments.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts cite significantly softer U.S. residential HVAC demand, which is expected to weigh on near-term earnings and has prompted multiple downward price target revisions.
• Negative revisions in 2025 earnings per share estimates suggest a cautious view on management's ability to achieve prior guidance, particularly as EPS headwinds in the CSA segment become more pronounced.
• Recent company commentary indicates that U.S. RHVAC sales are falling short of earlier projections. This suggests that execution challenges may persist through upcoming quarters and may continue to pressure valuation.
• Overall, cautious analysts expect guidance to be revised lower alongside the next round of quarterly results. Weaker residential volumes are cited as a primary concern dampening growth prospects in the near term.

What's in the News

• Carrier will debut its QuantumLeap suite of thermal management solutions and introduce liquid cooling technology for data centers at Data Centre World Asia on October 8-9. This move addresses rising demand for efficient cooling as AI and digital infrastructure expand. (Key Developments)
• The Abound Insights platform has received a major AI-powered upgrade. This update enables building operators to manage operations more efficiently with interactive maps, weather and air quality overlays, and advanced filter and export features. (Key Developments)
• Carrier has launched field trials of battery-enabled HVAC systems in partnership with utilities and EPRI. The initiative aims to increase grid flexibility by using home HVAC units as Distributed Energy Resources to shift and store energy during peak demand periods. (Key Developments)
• Carrier became the first HVAC OEM to complete the U.S. Department of Energy's Commercial Building HVAC Technology Challenge in the 10-14-ton rooftop heat pump category. The company exceeded efficiency and capacity standards in independent validation. (Key Developments)
• The company reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance, expecting sales of $23.0 billion. Carrier also announced that it has completed a major share buyback totaling over 98 million shares for $5.8 billion. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has decreased moderately from $76.18 to $74.29.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 8.68% to 8.70%.
• Revenue Growth expectations have fallen from 4.83% to 4.06%.
• Net Profit Margin is up, increasing from 11.11% to 12.58%.
• Future P/E ratio has decreased notably from 24.68x to 21.75x.