Update shared on11 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.30%Carrier Global's analyst price target has been reduced from $77.18 to $76.18. Analysts cite a softer residential HVAC outlook and ongoing margin pressures as key factors behind the revision.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research highlights a range of views regarding Carrier Global's outlook, reflecting both confidence in its commercial operations and caution stemming from residential market challenges.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts point to robust growth in Carrier's commercial HVAC and aftermarket businesses. These areas are seen as key drivers for long-term upside into 2026 and beyond.
- Channel restocking is expected to be aggressive through year-end. Field inventory is projected at multi-year lows by the end of the fourth quarter.
- An upward price target revision by one firm signals positive sentiment around the company’s ability to deliver solid results and potentially increase 2025 earnings outlooks across the industrial sector.
- Bearish analysts note that Carrier’s U.S. residential HVAC sales are trending below prior expectations, contributing to revised earnings per share guidance for 2025 and creating near-term headwinds.
- Updated models reflect weaker residential volumes, which continue to weigh on valuation and investor confidence.
- There is concern over inflation-related pressures and heightened competition. This has led to increased inventory in the distribution channel and a mixed outlook for the upcoming quarters.
- Several analysts expect that current guidance may be lowered alongside third-quarter results, further highlighting market uncertainty.
What's in the News
- Carrier will showcase its QuantumLeap suite of AI-driven thermal management solutions for data centers at Data Centre World Asia on October 8-9. The company will debut liquid cooling for the first time in Asia (Key Developments).
- The company introduced a major upgrade to its Abound Insights platform. The update adds advanced AI-powered features for building operations, including interactive maps, weather and air quality overlays, and streamlined reporting tools (Key Developments).
- Carrier has begun the first field trials of battery-enabled HVAC systems to explore how homes can serve as flexible Distributed Energy Resources. These systems support grid resilience by shifting energy use from on-peak to off-peak times (Key Developments).
- Carrier is the first HVAC manufacturer to complete the U.S. Department of Energy's Commercial Building HVAC Technology Challenge validation. The company exceeded performance and efficiency benchmarks for its rooftop heat pump system (Key Developments).
- Carrier reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance, projecting sales of $23.0 billion for the period (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased slightly from $77.18 to $76.18.
- The discount rate has risen modestly, moving from 8.64% to 8.68%.
- Revenue growth projection has edged down from 4.89% to 4.83%.
- Net profit margin estimate has decreased from 11.30% to 11.11%.
- Future P/E ratio forecast has increased slightly from 24.52x to 24.68x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.