Update shared on27 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 4.87%Carrier Global’s consensus price target has been revised downward from $81.13 to $77.18 as analysts note weaker near-term residential HVAC demand and inflation headwinds, despite strength in commercial segments and long-term growth prospects.
Analyst Commentary
- Lowered 2025 U.S. residential HVAC outlook and weaker residential volumes are weighing on near-term sales and EPS estimates.
- Aggressive channel restocking is expected through Q4, with field inventory projected at multi-year lows by year-end.
- Commercial HVAC and aftermarket segments are showing robust growth, supporting long-term upside into 2026 and beyond.
- Company faces near-term inflation headwinds, rising competition, and higher channel inventory, contributing to a more cautious outlook.
- Most industrial peers are anticipated to report solid Q2 results and modestly lift 2025 earnings forecasts, with sector sentiment improving.
What's in the News
- Carrier launched a major upgrade to its Abound Insights platform, adding advanced AI-powered features to streamline building operations, enhance energy efficiency, and reduce maintenance costs.
- The company commenced its first field trials of battery-enabled HVAC systems, assessing their potential in demand response and grid resilience, leveraging a large installed base for significant flexible demand capability.
- Carrier became the first HVAC OEM to complete the DOE's Commercial Building HVAC Technology Challenge validation, with its rooftop heat pump exceeding key efficiency and performance benchmarks.
- Carrier reaffirmed 2025 earnings guidance, projecting sales of $23.0 billion.
- The company repurchased 9.83 million shares for $630.85 million in Q2 2025, completing 11.34% of its buyback program, totaling $5.81 billion since inception.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Carrier Global
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $81.13 to $77.18.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Carrier Global has significantly fallen from 5.7% per annum to 4.9% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Carrier Global has fallen from 26.06x to 24.52x.
Disclaimer
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