Update shared on12 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.14%Carrier Global’s price target was revised down to $81.13 as analysts factor in a softer U.S. residential HVAC outlook and near-term sales headwinds, despite continued strength in commercial and aftermarket segments.
Analyst Commentary
- Lowered U.S. residential HVAC outlook and weaker residential volumes are pressuring near-term sales and earnings forecasts, leading to price target reductions.
- Aggressive channel restocking is expected through Q4, with field inventory at multi-year lows by year end, influencing management's guidance.
- Commercial HVAC and aftermarket segments continue to show strong growth, bolstering longer-term upside into 2026 and beyond.
- Inflation headwinds, rising competition, and higher channel inventory levels are contributing to a mixed near-term outlook and some entity downgrades.
- Some bullish analysts see the potential for solid sector results and possible 2025 earnings outlook increases, supporting upward price target revisions.
What's in the News
- Carrier Global became the first HVAC OEM to complete the DOE's Commercial Building HVAC Technology Challenge lab validation in the 10-14-ton rooftop heat pump category, with systems exceeding key efficiency and performance benchmarks in independent testing.
- The company reaffirmed 2025 earnings guidance, expecting sales of $23.0 billion.
- Carrier repurchased 9,834,000 shares for $630.85 million in Q2 2025, completing a total buyback of 98,886,374 shares (11.34%) worth $5,807.16 million since February 2021.
- Enhancements to the Abound Insights Assistant app were launched, providing building managers with AI-driven, actionable equipment insights, improved maintenance planning tools, advanced health dashboards, and new data analysis features.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Carrier Global
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $82.90 to $81.13.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Carrier Global has fallen slightly from 5.9% per annum to 5.7% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Carrier Global has fallen slightly from 26.63x to 26.06x.
Disclaimer
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