XMTR: Expanding Marketplace Network Will Drive Future Share Gains

Analysts modestly raised their price targets on Xometry into a roughly $60 to $75 range, citing stronger than expected Q3 results, accelerating marketplace revenue growth, and growing evidence that the platform is capturing share as it scales its buyer and supplier network.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlighted that Xometry's record Q3 performance across revenue, gross profit, Marketplace gross margin, and adjusted EBITDA supports a higher fundamental valuation framework. The company is seen as executing well against its marketplace strategy, with accelerating revenue trends reinforcing confidence in its long term growth algorithm.

At the same time, some more cautious voices are focusing on the durability of these trends and the implications of the company’s longer term revenue outlook, which they see as a potential constraint on multiple expansion if execution were to slow.

Bullish Takeaways

• Upward price target revisions into the $60 to $75 range reflect increased confidence in Xometry’s ability to sustain strong top line growth and margin expansion, supporting a premium growth multiple.
• Record Marketplace gross margin and adjusted EBITDA are viewed as evidence that scale efficiencies and pricing discipline are improving the economic engine of the business, reducing risk on the path to sustainable profitability.
• Accelerating marketplace revenue growth and continued share gains as the buyer and supplier network expands reinforce the thesis that Xometry can be a category defining platform with meaningful long term upside.
• Product enhancements, including broader instant quote coverage and tools such as the Workcenter mobile app, are seen as deepening customer engagement and improving conversion, which could support higher revenue per customer and stickier relationships over time.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to the "soft" 2026 revenue guidance as a signal that management may be embedding more conservative assumptions on demand or competitive intensity, limiting near term justification for further multiple expansion.
• There is caution that recent upside, driven by strong Q3 outperformance, may set a high bar for future quarters, increasing execution risk if growth or margins normalize from record levels.
• Some remain concerned that, despite improving profitability metrics, the business still requires sustained high growth and disciplined cost control to fully support current and higher valuation targets.
• Questions persist around macro sensitivity and whether current marketplace momentum can fully offset potential slowdowns in customer capital spending, which could introduce volatility into growth trajectories.

What's in the News

• Xometry issued new earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting revenue of $182 million to $184 million, representing 23% to 24% year over year growth (company guidance).
• The company raised its full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $676 million to $678 million, reinforcing expectations for sustained double digit growth (company guidance).
• Xometry launched auto quoting for injection molding services in the U.S., cutting the quoting process from days to minutes and extending its AI powered platform capabilities for both prototyping and high volume production (product announcement).
• The company released its new Workcenter Mobile App, enabling suppliers to manage job offers, production workflows, and shop performance from their smartphones with real time notifications and on the go data capture (product announcement).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at an implied intrinsic value of approximately 65.44 per share, indicating no adjustment to the core valuation anchor.
• Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 8.09% to 8.14%, reflecting a modest increase in the required return and a slightly higher perceived risk profile.
• Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at roughly 19.0% projected annual growth, suggesting stable expectations for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Fallen moderately from about 1.15% to 0.91%, implying somewhat lower profitability assumptions in the updated model.
• Future P/E: Risen significantly from approximately 356.5x to 450.9x, indicating a higher valuation multiple being applied to forward earnings expectations.