Update shared on06 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 22%Analysts have raised Rocket Lab's price target to $39.18, citing broad sector strength, sustained demand in space and defense, and the company's competitive position, despite ongoing concerns about profitability and financial visibility.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite continued sector momentum in aerospace and defense as a key driver for higher price targets.
- Ongoing tightness in the aerospace & defense aftermarket and strength within Space & Defense support positive long-term demand outlooks.
- Rocket Lab's established position as a reliable dedicated launch provider and operator of multiple launchpads in the U.S. and New Zealand is viewed as a competitive moat.
- The company's diversified portfolio of rocket types and end-to-end space offerings position it favorably within the industry.
- Bearish analysts point to a lack of current profitability, negative cash flow, ongoing investment in Neutron development, and limited financial visibility as areas of caution.
What's in the News
- Rocket Lab has executed a record launch cadence, completing multiple successful Electron missions for major customers including iQPS, BlackSky, HawkEye 360, ESA, NASA, and confidential commercial clients, emphasizing 100% mission success so far this year and demonstrating industry-leading responsiveness and reliability.
- The company is the primary launch provider for iQPS, steadily building their SAR satellite constellation with a multi-launch contract; four more iQPS missions are scheduled in 2025–2026, and over half the constellation is now deployed via Electron.
- Several high-profile missions have contributed to further growth, including first-time contracts with the European Space Agency (LEO-PNT), NASA (Aspera Mission), and dedicated launches for Varda Space Industries’ re-entry program and HawkEye 360’s geospatial analytics satellites.
- Rocket Lab is advancing its medium-lift Neutron rocket program, with debut and AFRL cargo demonstration missions scheduled for 2025–2026; infrastructure and engine testing are progressing on schedule.
- The company received multiple index changes, notably added to the Russell 1000, Russell Midcap, and related growth indices, while being dropped from the Russell 2000, reflecting growth in market capitalization.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Rocket Lab
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $37.18 to $39.18.
- The Discount Rate for Rocket Lab has risen from 7.11% to 7.64%.
- The Future P/E for Rocket Lab has risen from 161.74x to 173.01x.
Disclaimer
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