Update shared on20 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 4.51%Following an earnings beat and raised guidance driven by robust revenue growth, cost control, and sustained margin expansion, analysts have increased Blue Bird's consensus price target from $56.57 to $59.12.
Analyst Commentary
- Earnings beat and raised guidance following Q3 results driven by strong management execution in both revenue growth and cost control.
- Approximately 30% increase in share price since Q3 earnings announcement.
- Significant improvement in gross margins, up about 240 basis points over the trailing 12-month average.
- Anticipation of continued margin expansion due to higher volumes and strengthening average sales prices.
- Ongoing positive operational momentum expected to sustain financial performance.
What's in the News
- Micro Bird USA LLC, a joint venture with Blue Bird, opened a 156,000 sq. ft. manufacturing facility in Plattsburgh, NY, after a $38 million investment, aiming to expand North American operations and boost local employment to 350.
- Blue Bird is delivering 25 electric school buses to Little Rock School District, enabled by a $9.9 million EPA grant, with electric buses expected to significantly reduce operating costs and emissions.
- Blue Bird announced a share repurchase program of up to $100 million, to be funded through cash, free cash flow, or indebtedness, running through January 2028.
- Between March and June 2025, Blue Bird repurchased 245,249 shares for $8.94 million, completing 1,249,869 shares for $48.93 million under the earlier buyback program.
- Blue Bird updated full-year 2025 revenue guidance, tightening projections to approximately $1.45 billion.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Blue Bird
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $56.57 to $59.12.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Blue Bird has significantly risen from 4.0% per annum to 4.6% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Blue Bird has risen from 14.04x to 14.75x.
Disclaimer
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