ARRY: Record Backlog And International Projects Will Support Turnaround Repricing

Array Technologies' analyst-derived fair value estimate is now $14.06, a small move from $14.03, as analysts weigh a mix of recent price target increases and cuts alongside updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and P/E expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Recent price target changes for Array Technologies show a mix of cautious resets and selective optimism, which helps explain why the analyst-derived fair value estimate has stayed relatively stable. While several firms trimmed targets, a group of bullish analysts and large banks continue to see support for the stock at levels meaningfully above the lowest estimates.

On the cautious side, multiple firms reduced their targets by US$1 to US$5, including a move from US$15 to US$10 at UBS and a cut to US$8 at BarclaysNextpower. These shifts reflect more conservative assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and P/E levels that feed directly into the fair value framework.

At the same time, there have been offsetting positive adjustments. Goldman Sachs and Citi each raised their price targets by US$1, and JPMorgan made a smaller downward adjustment of US$2, which is more moderate than some of the earlier cuts from other houses. Taken together, the pattern suggests that while some analysts are resetting expectations, others still see room for upside if execution and market conditions align with their models.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts at major banks, including Goldman Sachs and Citi, have recently raised their price targets by US$1, signaling continued confidence in Array Technologies' ability to support valuations above the lowest published estimates.
• The US$10 target from UBS, even after a cut from US$15, sits above the US$8 level set by BarclaysNextpower. This implies that some research desks are still using more constructive assumptions on growth, margins and P/E potential.
• The modest US$2 trim from JPMorgan contrasts with larger reductions from others. This can be read as a relatively supportive stance on the company's capacity to execute against current expectations.
• Overall, the coexistence of upward target revisions with more measured cuts indicates that a segment of the analyst community continues to see Array Technologies as having room to justify higher valuations if it meets or beats the operational assumptions embedded in their models.

What's in the News

• Reported a record US$2.4b order backlog in Q1 2026 alongside a GAAP net loss and a 26.1% year over year sales decline, while revenue and adjusted earnings came in ahead of expectations, contributing to an analyst price target move from US$7 to US$8. Source: Array Technologies Q1 2026 results coverage.
• Reaffirmed full year 2026 guidance with revenue projected between US$1.4b and US$1.5b and adjusted EBITDA expected in the US$200m to US$230m range, and provided Q2 2026 revenue guidance of US$300m to US$320m. Source: Company guidance update.
• Launched the next generation dual row solar tracker DuraTrack D2S for global markets and highlighted new international projects in Turkey, Peru and Colombia, with adjusted gross margin reported at 30.7% and a focus on converting backlog into profitable revenue. Source: Array Technologies Q1 2026 results coverage.
• Selected as the solar tracker supplier for Statkraft’s high altitude Lupi solar project in Peru, reinforcing the company’s presence in international utility scale projects. Source: project announcement with Statkraft.
• Announced an updated OmniTrack terrain following tracker with flex capability of up to 2° between adjacent posts, which is scheduled to begin shipping in Q3 2026 and is aimed at giving developers more options on challenging sites. Source: OmniTrack product update.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: The analyst-derived fair value estimate has risen slightly from $14.03 to $14.06 per share, reflecting a very small upward adjustment.
• Discount Rate: The discount rate has risen slightly from 11.69% to 11.72%, indicating a modestly higher required return in the updated model.
• Revenue Growth: Revenue growth assumptions have risen slightly from 17.49% to 17.63%, pointing to a marginally higher expected top line trajectory in analyst models.
• Net Profit Margin: Net profit margin expectations have risen slightly from 10.27% to 10.43%, indicating a small uplift in assumed profitability.
• Future P/E: The future P/E multiple has fallen slightly from 15.28x to 15.04x, suggesting a modestly lower valuation multiple being applied to projected earnings.