ARRY: Record Backlog And 2026 Guidance Will Drive Turnaround Repricing

Array Technologies' updated analyst price target edges down from about $15.00 to $14.03, as analysts weigh stronger projected revenue growth against a slightly lower fair value estimate, a higher discount rate, modestly reduced margin expectations, and a small adjustment to the assumed future P/E.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research coverage on Array Technologies has been active, with several firms revisiting their valuation frameworks following the latest earnings, product updates, and backlog trends. While many targets have been recalibrated, the range of views highlights a split between caution around margins and optimism around bookings, backlog, and longer term growth potential.

Some firms have trimmed price targets while keeping positive ratings, pointing to solid order activity and revenue guidance alongside pressure on near term profitability. Others have shifted to more neutral stances where margin visibility is a primary concern. At the same time, there are also clearly bullish analysts who see the current valuation as attractive relative to Array Technologies' pipeline and platform.

On net, the Street appears to be balancing execution risk on margins and product transition against the scale of the order book, record backlog references, and commentary around future EBITDA ambitions. For investors, the message is that valuation views are being shaped by how each firm weighs these offsetting factors rather than a single uniform narrative.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight Array Technologies' strong Q4 bookings and revenue, with some pointing out guidance that includes mid teens growth for 2026, supported by the APA acquisition as a key input to their positive stance on growth potential and valuation.
• One firm upgraded Array Technologies to an Outperform rating with a US$19 price target, which indicates that at least some on the Street see current levels as attractive for a company with a sizable backlog and a platform that still has room to scale.
• Several bullish analysts maintain Buy or equivalent ratings even after lowering price targets, arguing that record backlog growth and ongoing steps to shore up backlog support a constructive long term view, despite near term margin pressure.
• Positive commentary also points to a discount to peers for the stock, with some firms remaining cautiously optimistic that, if management executes on its plans to improve the EBITDA profile over time, there could be upside relative to current expectations.

What’s in the News

• China is considering restrictions on exports of solar manufacturing equipment, which could be a factor for global solar supply chains and project timelines if implemented (Reuters).
• Array Technologies reaffirmed full year 2026 revenue guidance of US$1.4b to US$1.5b and provided second quarter 2026 revenue guidance of US$300 million to US$320 million, giving investors clearer visibility on expected top line for the year and the upcoming quarter.
• The company issued 2026 first quarter revenue guidance of approximately US$200 million and reiterated full year 2026 revenue expectations of US$1.4b to US$1.5b, keeping the focus on how order conversion translates into reported sales.
• Array Technologies reported goodwill impairment charges of US$102.56 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with US$74 million a year earlier, which highlights that non cash items can affect reported earnings even when cash flow trends differ.
• The company proposed amending its Certificate of Incorporation to declassify the Board and phase in annual director elections starting with the 2027 Annual Meeting, with all directors standing for one year terms from 2029 onward, a change that would increase the frequency of shareholder votes on board members.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: revised from $15.00 to $14.03, a modest reduction in the central valuation estimate.
• Discount Rate: increased from 10.73% to 11.69%, indicating a slightly higher required return being applied to future cash flows.
• Revenue Growth: adjusted from 10.54% to 17.49%, reflecting a higher assumed pace of future sales expansion in the model.
• Net Profit Margin: moved from 11.01% to 10.27%, a small step down in projected profitability on each dollar of revenue.
• Future P/E: updated from 15.81x to 15.28x, implying a slightly lower valuation multiple on projected earnings.