ARRY: Turnaround Momentum And July 4 Safe Harbor Deadline Will Drive Repricing

Array Technologies' fair value estimate in our model has moved to $15.00 from $13.00, reflecting analysts' higher price targets tied to improving execution, a perceived turnaround, and a narrowing valuation gap versus peers.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research has tilted more constructive on Array Technologies, with several bullish analysts adjusting ratings and price targets in response to what they view as better execution, a progressing turnaround plan, and a valuation gap versus peers.

One upgrade lifted the stock to Buy from Hold, with the price target moving to $12 from $10. The analyst highlighted improving execution, what they see as low investor expectations, and a valuation discount relative to other names in the space. They also pointed to the July 4 safe harbor deadline as a clear potential catalyst for the name.

Another upgrade raised the rating to Buy from Neutral with a $12 price target, citing confidence that the company's turnaround plan is succeeding. That research argued Array has recovered to a healthier position in the U.S. market and is benefiting from what the analyst called a flight to quality.

On the target side, bullish analysts have also lifted price objectives in response to recent company updates. One firm moved its target to $9 from $6 despite describing a mixed Q3 and weak implied Q4 EBITDA guide, pointing instead to strong bookings of about $500m for a 1.3x book to bill and what they see as a reasonable path back to mid to high teens EBITDA margins in 2026.

Bullish Takeaways

• Multiple bullish analysts have shifted to Buy ratings with targets around $12, tying their stance to improving execution, perceived turnaround progress, and a valuation gap relative to peers.
• Strong reported bookings of about $500m and a 1.3x book to bill are seen as supportive for future revenue visibility, which some analysts connect to stronger confidence in Array's execution.
• Several research notes reference a turnaround plan that they believe is succeeding, with one calling out a recovery to a healthier position in the U.S. and benefits from a flight to quality among customers.
• The July 4 safe harbor deadline is cited as a clear potential catalyst that, in bullish views, could help close the perceived valuation discount if execution stays on track.

What's in the News

• Array Technologies issued earnings guidance for the year ending December 31, 2025, with expected revenue in the range of US$1.25b to US$1.28b (company guidance).
• The 2025 revenue outlook gives investors a concrete top line range to compare with analyst models and previous expectations. This helps frame how current bookings and backlog may translate into future sales (company guidance).
• The guidance update provides a clearer reference point for assessing valuation multiples such as P/S relative to the company’s own revenue expectations for 2025 (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

• Fair value estimate raised from $13.00 to $15.00, a US$2.00 increase in the model’s central valuation figure.
• Discount rate moved slightly higher from 10.41% to 10.73%, implying a modestly higher required return in the updated assumptions.
• Revenue growth reduced in the model from 14.17% to 10.54%, reflecting a more moderate growth profile in the forward assumptions.
• Net profit margin adjusted down from 12.92% to 11.01%, indicating slightly lower modeled profitability than before.
• Future P/E increased from 12.04x to 15.81x, pointing to a higher valuation multiple applied to the company’s modeled future earnings.