Update shared on15 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 9.25%Wow, that was fast. The market is catching on quicker than I expected. With the stock blowing past my old $389 target and getting close to $400 in just two trading days, it's clear the repricing I talked about has started.
Investors are realising that weak 'car sales' in Europe isn't the real story... The market is finally looking ahead to the true nature of the company: an AI, energy and robotics powerhouse, spearheaded by the imminent robotaxi deployment and developments in Energy.
Given this acceleration, I'm raising my Fair Value to $425. I expect hype and momentum could push the stock even higher in Q4. However, I'd be cautious about starting a new position here. Tesla is a very volatile stock driven by market sentiment, 20%+ corrections should be expected.
Disclaimer
BlackGoat is an employee of Simply Wall St, but has written this narrative in their capacity as an individual investor. BlackGoat has a position in NasdaqGS:TSLA. Simply Wall St has no position in any companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimate's are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.