Update shared on19 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.40%Rivian’s modest price target increase to $14.04 reflects cautious optimism as bearish analysts cite softening demand, regulatory headwinds, and tariff risks, while bullish analysts see cost reductions and upcoming product catalysts as balancing factors.
Analyst Commentary
- Lowered EBITDA guidance and removal of regulatory credits have led to downward price target revisions, though earnings estimates may be approaching a bottom.
- Softening demand for Rivian’s R1 model is negatively impacting volume and pricing assumptions for upcoming R2 and R3 models.
- Bearish analysts cite unfavorable changes in U.S. electric vehicle and emissions policies, including the loss of EV incentives, as a headwind for both average selling prices and volume potential.
- Industry-wide factors, such as the prospect of higher auto tariffs and their impact on pricing and consumer demand, are expected to moderate Rivian’s near-term growth.
- Bullish analysts point to the upcoming R2 launch and an impending AI day as potential catalysts, expressing confidence in Rivian’s cost-reduction targets and possible stabilization in earnings revisions.
What's in the News
- Amazon is testing General Motors' BrightDrop electric vans as part of efforts to reduce delivery fleet emissions, causing Rivian shares to drop over 6% as investors raise concerns about Rivian's exclusive relationship with Amazon (Bloomberg).
- Rivian is undergoing workforce reductions, laying off less than 1.5% of its staff in the U.S. and Canada and previously cutting 140 jobs, as the company aims to improve operational efficiency ahead of the R2 SUV launch planned for 2026 (Wall Street Journal, TechCrunch).
- Rivian lost $100 million in revenue due to a halt in regulatory credit sales after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration stopped the necessary paperwork, impacting both Rivian and Lucid (Wall Street Journal).
- Rivian has sued the Ohio Department of Motor Vehicles over a ban on direct car sales, claiming it unfairly benefits existing auto dealers and citing Tesla’s exemption from the ban (The Verge).
- The U.S. Commerce Department has imposed effective duties of 160% on Chinese graphite imports, which are critical for EV batteries, potentially increasing costs for Rivian and other automakers (Bloomberg).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Rivian Automotive
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $13.85 to $14.04.
- The Net Profit Margin for Rivian Automotive remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 5.04% to 5.10%.
- The Discount Rate for Rivian Automotive remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 11.71% to 11.82%.
Disclaimer
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