Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Rivian’s consensus analyst price target held steady at $13.94 as market caution persists due to weakened EV demand, U.S. policy headwinds, and lower earnings guidance, partially offset by optimism around new product launches and autonomy initiatives.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts cite ongoing softness in R1 vehicle demand and lower confidence in R2 and R3 volume and ASP assumptions due to weakened long-term market outlooks.
- Negative shifts in U.S. electric vehicle policies and the loss of regulatory credits/incentives are expected to adversely impact Rivian’s ASPs and volume growth.
- Lowered EBITDA guidance contributed to reduced optimism about Rivian’s near-term earnings trajectory, though current earnings revisions may be nearing a bottom.
- Bullish analysts point to upcoming product launches (notably the R2) and management initiatives, such as an AI Day focusing on autonomy, as potential positives.
- Broad industry factors, including the impact of tariffs and moderating baseline U.S. auto sales forecasts, have also led to more conservative price targets and cautious outlooks.
What's in the News
- Canada is expected to drop tariffs on many U.S. goods but will likely retain duties on imported U.S. automobiles, impacting Rivian's cross-border competitiveness (Bloomberg, 2025-08-22).
- The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's halt on regulatory credit paperwork has delayed $100M in revenue for Rivian, with legal actions underway to restart the credit market (Wall Street Journal, 2025-08-15).
- Rivian is suing Ohio's DMV over a new ban on direct car sales, arguing the rule is anti-competitive and unfairly favors established dealerships; Tesla remains exempt from the ban (The Verge, 2025-08-04).
- The U.S. Commerce Department imposed an effective 160% duty on Chinese graphite imports, a key EV battery material, increasing potential material costs for Rivian and industry peers (Bloomberg, 2025-07-17).
- Rivian laid off 140 salaried manufacturing employees (about 1% of its workforce) to streamline operations ahead of its planned R2 SUV launch in 2026 (TechCrunch, 2025-06-26).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Rivian Automotive
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $13.94.
- The Net Profit Margin for Rivian Automotive remained effectively unchanged, at 5.07%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Rivian Automotive remained effectively unchanged, at 44.6% per annum.
Disclaimer
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