Update shared on 26 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 7.11%Kenmare Resources’ analyst price target has been revised downward from 330 GBp to 300 GBp. Analysts cite reduced revenue growth forecasts, lower profit margins, and a higher discount rate in their updated assessments.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research activity has resulted in both upward and downward revisions for Kenmare Resources, reflecting varying sentiments regarding the company's outlook and share valuation.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts point to Kenmare Resources’ ability to maintain steady production levels. This supports its underlying value despite market volatility.
- There is continued confidence in the company’s long-term position within its sector and this suggests resilience to short-term pricing pressures.
- Some note that the company's cost discipline can support margins if demand recovers in key markets.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts remain cautious on short-term revenue prospects and cite downgrades driven by reduced growth forecasts and tighter profit margins.
- Higher discount rates are putting pressure on equity valuations. This is resulting in lowered price targets for the company.
- Uncertainty around demand recovery increases the risk of further downward adjustments in estimates.
- Execution risks, particularly in cost management, may limit the company’s ability to meet profitability targets in a challenging market environment.
What's in the News
- Kenmare Resources has upgraded its largest mining plant, WCP A, and has begun transitioning it to the Nataka ore zone. This zone holds approximately 70% of the company's mineral resources and is expected to secure production for over 20 years (Key Developments).
- The capital cost estimate for WCP A’s upgrade and transition to Nataka remains unchanged at $341 million. Commissioning is underway and most upgrade components are already operating to design (Key Developments).
- The company reported lowered production results for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, with declines in excavated ore, HMC, ilmenite, primary zircon, and rutile. However, concentrates increased (Key Developments).
- Kenmare has issued updated production guidance for 2025, lowering expectations for ilmenite and rutile output while maintaining previous targets for primary zircon and concentrates (Key Developments).
- Further optimisation is underway to resolve throughput restrictions at WCP A’s upgraded on-plant tailings management component. Resolution efforts may possibly extend into 2026 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has fallen slightly, moving from 5.93 to 5.51.
- Discount Rate has risen from 8.23% to 9.48%, reflecting increased risk assumptions.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has decreased, dropping from 4.21% to 3.66%.
- Net Profit Margin is now significantly lower, reduced from 23.51% to 15.68%.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased from 8.10x to 11.63x, indicating higher valuation multiples in light of reduced earnings expectations.
Disclaimer
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