HOC: Long-Term Gold Forecasts Will Drive Substantial Upside Through 2027

Hochschild Mining’s analyst price target has risen significantly, with new targets ranging from 350 GBp to 610 GBp. Analysts cite stronger long-term gold forecasts and improved sector upside potential.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst activity reflects a mix of optimism and caution regarding Hochschild Mining's valuation and outlook. The range of updated price targets highlights shifting expectations based on evolving gold price forecasts and company performance.

• Bullish analysts have significantly raised their price targets. Some envision valuations as high as 610 GBp, driven by a dramatically increased long-term gold price outlook.
• Long-term gold price forecasts have been revised upward by as much as 80 percent to $3,850 per ounce. This is expected to enhance the company's earnings potential and sector-wide upside.
• There is continued confidence in the upside for European gold miners, with projections of over 50 percent equity appreciation through December 2027 fair values.
• Overweight and Buy ratings remain prevalent, reflecting expectations of robust execution and improved sector positioning for Hochschild Mining over the coming years.

• Some bearish analysts have opted to lower price targets, citing risks related to execution and uncertainties in the company's growth trajectory.
• Hold ratings persist among more cautious analysts, indicating concerns about the stock's ability to outperform in the near term despite the favorable gold price backdrop.
• Target reductions reflect careful scrutiny of operational performance and development milestones which could impact valuation.
• There is an emphasis on the need for consistent delivery against guidance to justify elevated valuations given the recent volatility in price targets.

What's in the News

• Reported Q3 2025 production results: silver production totaled 2,291 koz, down from 2,658 koz a year earlier; gold production was 58.01 koz, down from 78.15 koz. Total gold equivalent production for the quarter fell to 85.61 koz from 110.18 koz (Key Developments).
• Reiterated full-year 2025 production guidance of 291,000 to 319,000 gold equivalent ounces (Key Developments).
• Revised the Mara Rosa mine's 2025 production target down to 35,000-45,000 ounces, from previous guidance of 94,000-104,000 ounces. The overall attributable production target for 2025 was also reduced (Key Developments).
• First-half 2025 results showed group gold production up to 131.74 koz from 120.16 koz last year, but silver production down to 4,624 koz from 5,016 koz. Total attributable gold equivalent rose to 161.60 koz from 152.79 koz (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value estimate has declined marginally, moving from 4.49x to 4.47x.
• The Discount Rate has increased, rising from 8.01 percent to 8.55 percent.
• Revenue Growth projections have risen slightly, increasing from 8.22 percent to 8.28 percent.
• The Net Profit Margin forecast has edged up minimally, from 16.79 percent to 16.80 percent.
• The projected Future P/E ratio is higher, moving from 16.67x to 16.86x.