RockeTeller updated the narrative for DMET

🪙 Denarius Metals (DMET) – 2025 Update

Latest official info

• Shares Outstanding (basic): ~123,739,188 as of September 2, 2025. Denarius Metals
• Fully Diluted shares (incl. warrants/options etc.): ~291,598,497. Denarius Metals
• Project Updates:   • Zancudo (Colombia): Mining commenced Q2-2025; first shipment under Trafigura offtake announced in mid-July 2025. 1,000 tonnes per day processing plant and site infrastructure are fully funded to be completed by end-2025 for Au-Ag concentrates. Cboe Global Markets+3Denarius Metals+3Denarius Metals+3   • Zancudo PEA metrics: Initial CAPEX ~US$14.8M; AISC ~US$1,059/oz payable gold (by-product basis) per the PEA. Denarius Metals   • Lomero-Poyatos (Spain): Updated MRE (Sept 2023) converted ~73% of resources to Indicated; 146 holes by DMET plus historical ones. PEA based on updated MRE & access to the 2,500 tpd Aguablanca plant in progress; timing sliding. Aguablanca plant condition assessment with METSO Spain underway; target production mid-2026. Cboe Global Markets+2Denarius Metals+2
• Latest AISC: Zancudo PEA gives ~US$1,059/oz (payable gold) for Zancudo. For consolidated modeling (i.e. Zancudo + other projects), assume GEO AISC proxy ~ US$1,200/oz.

⚠️ Risks (detailed)

• PEA / Study timing & cost visibility: Lomero-Poyatos PEA not yet released; cost structures and CAPEX/opex might differ materially.
• Financing & Dilution risk: Private placements recently done, debentures, warrants outstanding; further capital likely needed.
• Execution risk: Simultaneous advancement of Zancudo ramp up, Lomero technical work, Aguablanca restart spreads management and may lead to delays or cost creep.
• Regulatory / jurisdictional risk: Operating in Colombia & Spain, both of which have regulatory, permitting, environmental, and community risks.
• Commodity price dependency: Very high gold/silver/base metal prices assumed in upside scenarios; downside risk if metal prices drop.
• Metallurgy / recovery risk: Polymetallic projects depend on recovering not just gold and silver, but also copper, lead, zinc; penalties, metallurgical complexity possible.
• Offtake / ownership complexity: Partnerships/royalties / Trafigura offtake / RNR stake (~21%) introduce additional dependencies.

⚡ Catalysts (12-24 months)

• Completion & commissioning of Zancudo 1,000 tpd plant and start of steady Au-Ag concentrate sales via Trafigura offtake.
• Publication of the Lomero-Poyatos PEA (updated with cost, production, resource data).
• Restart of Aguablanca (via RNR) around mid-2026; refurb / dewatering / underground works.
• Further resource infill / expansion drilling in Spain & Colombia to increase Indicated/Measured ounces.
• Additional financing, project partners or off-take agreements to reduce risk of dilution.
• Positive metal price movements (especially gold & silver) and favorable macro / investor sentiment toward polymetallic / critical metals projects.

🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline

H2 2025

• 🚧 Risks: Zancudo plant construction delays; cash constraints; cost overruns.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Zancudo plant completion; initial shipments; early revenue; LoM gold silver production; finalize Lomero PEA inputs.

2026

• 🚧 Risks: Aguablanca production restart delays; permitting / environmental approvals; integration of plants / logistics in Spain.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Aguablanca recommissions; Lomero PEA published; strong infill drilling; financing / off-take agreements.

2027–2029

• 🚧 Risks: Scaling up operations; sustaining costs; maintaining recoveries; infrastructure issues.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Full production from Lomero (if built); consistent cash flow; positive strip in base metals; productivity improvements.

📊 Detailed FCF Valuation Scenarios

Let’s rerun the valuation for Denarius Metals (DMET) using fully diluted shares = ~291,598,497 (instead of 123.7M basic).

All other assumptions stay the same (AISC proxy US$1,200/GEO; GEOs as earlier).

Scenario A: Gold US$4,500/oz, Silver US$100/oz

• GEOs = ~840,178
• Margin/GEO = 4,500 − 1,200 = US$3,300
• FCF ≈ US$2.7726B

Valuation:

• 10× = US$27.73B → ÷ 291.6M = US$95.1/sh
• 15× = US$41.59B → ÷ 291.6M = US$142.7/sh
• 20× = US$55.45B → ÷ 291.6M = US$190.2/sh

Scenario B: Gold US$5,000/oz, Silver US$150/oz

• GEOs = ~868,160
• Margin/GEO = 5,000 − 1,200 = US$3,800
• FCF ≈ US$3.299B

Valuation:

• 10× = US$32.99B → ÷ 291.6M = US$113.1/sh
• 15× = US$49.49B → ÷ 291.6M = US$169.6/sh
• 20× = US$65.98B → ÷ 291.6M = US$226.2/sh

🎯 Takeaway

• On a basic share count (123.7M), valuations were $224–533/sh in upside scenarios.
• On a fully diluted share count (291.6M), valuations compress to ~$95–226/sh.
• Still massive torque, but dilution brings per-share realism.

🎯 Conclusion

✅ Shares basic ~123.7M; fully diluted ~291.6M. Use basic for baseline. Denarius Metals

✅ Real AISC known only for Zancudo (~US$1,059/oz gold); consolidated cost proxies are assumptions.

✅ With high-price decks (gold US$4,500-5,000, silver US$100-150) and strong base metals credit, per-share values are very large, but these are upside theoretical projections.

⚠️ Key swing factors: how accurate the Lomero POG AISC turns out; success of commissioning at Zancudo; securing financing; base metal recoveries; metal price environment.

🚀 Denarius Metals is positioned for major upward leverage if the positive catalysts align; but risks are nontrivial given the scope and capital needs.