Last Update 29 Sep 25
A little update:
The latest news on the Zancudo and Aguablanca projects indicates that while Zancudo is meeting its immediate operational milestones, a key piece of infrastructure at Zancudo is slightly delayed, and the major catalyst for Aguablanca is also now projected for a later date in the timeline.
Summary for Zancudo: The company has successfully moved into the production phase and is generating revenue, checking off two major H2 2025 catalysts. However, the completion of the new, higher-capacity processing plant has shifted from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026.
The Zancudo project is currently in a two-phase production ramp-up:
1. Early Production Phase (Current)
- Mining Operations: Denarius Metals officially commenced mining activities at the Zancudo Project in April 2025.
- First Revenue/Shipments: The company recorded its first revenues and completed its first shipment of high-grade crushed ore to Trafigura in June 2025. Shipments are expected to increase in frequency and quantity as mining operations ramp up.
- Processing: During this early phase (which is expected to run until the new plant is operational), the mined material is being crushed on-site and then shipped to a local port for sale, generating early cash flow.
2. Full Processing Plant Operation
- Completion of Construction: The company's new 1,000 tonnes per day (tpd) processing plant is scheduled to be fully constructed and operational by the first quarter of 2026 (or Q4 2025 in some previous guidance).
- Full Production: Once the new plant is operational, the company will begin processing the ore to produce high-grade gold-silver concentrates on-site for delivery to Trafigura under their long-term offtake contract. The goal is to reach the full 1,000 tpd capacity over time.
In summary, they are already in production with early shipments and revenue generation, while the final large-scale processing facility is expected to be completed and fully operational in early 2026.
The company's plan involves an early production phase ramping up to full production. Based on the public information available from the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) and company updates, here is a summary of the expected production profile and financial metrics:
Other FAQ.
Key Assumptions:
- Resource Totals (2023 Updated Resource):
- Gold: 700,000 oz (Lomero-Poyatos).
- Silver: 7 million oz (Lomero-Poyatos).
- Base Metals (simplified equivalent values):
- Copper: 105M lbs.
- Lead: 96M lbs.
- Zinc: 240M lbs.
- Metal Prices:
- Gold: $4,000/oz.
- Silver: $100/oz.
- Copper: $4/lb.
- Lead: $1/lb.
- Zinc: $1.5/lb.
- Recovery Rate: Assume 80% recovery for all metals.
- Market Cap to Resource Multiple: Assume a conservative 10x FCF multiple.
Step 1: Revenue Estimation (from Lomero-Poyatos)
1. Gold Revenue:
- Recoverable Gold = 700,000 oz × 80% = 560,000 oz.
- Revenue from Gold = 560,000 × $4,000 = $2.24 billion.
2. Silver Revenue:
- Recoverable Silver = 7M oz × 80% = 5.6M oz.
- Revenue from Silver = 5.6M × $100 = $560 million.
3. Copper Revenue:
- Recoverable Copper = 105M lbs × 80% = 84M lbs.
- Revenue from Copper = 84M × $4 = $336 million.
4. Lead Revenue:
- Recoverable Lead = 96M lbs × 80% = 76.8M lbs.
- Revenue from Lead = 76.8M × $1 = $76.8 million.
5. Zinc Revenue:
- Recoverable Zinc = 240M lbs × 80% = 192M lbs.
- Revenue from Zinc = 192M × $1.5 = $288 million.
Total Revenue:
- Total Revenue = $2.24B (gold) + $560M (silver) + $336M (copper) + $76.8M (lead) + $288M (zinc) = $3.5 billion.
Step 2: Free Cash Flow (FCF) Calculation
Assume an AISC of $1,200 for gold equivalent production:
- Recoverable Gold Equivalent Ounces (AGEQ):
- Using gold as the baseline:
- Silver: 5.6M oz ÷ 40 = 140K AGEQ oz.
- Copper: $336M ÷ $4,000 = 84K AGEQ oz.
- Lead: $76.8M ÷ $4,000 = 19.2K AGEQ oz.
- Zinc: $288M ÷ $4,000 = 72K AGEQ oz.
- Total AGEQ = 560K + 140K + 84K + 19.2K + 72K = 875.2K AGEQ oz.
- Using gold as the baseline:
- FCF Calculation:
- Revenue per oz = $4,000 (gold price).
- Costs per oz = $1,200 (AISC).
- Margin per oz = $4,000 - $1,200 = $2,800.
- Total FCF = 875.2K × $2,800 = $2.45 billion.
Step 3: Market Cap Valuation
Using a 10x FCF multiple:
- Market Cap = $2.45 billion × 10 = $24.5 billion.
Step 4: Stock Price Calculation
Assume 100M shares outstanding (adjust based on actual data):
- Stock Price = Market Cap ÷ Shares Outstanding = $24.5 billion ÷ 100M = $245 per share.
Conclusion:
If gold reaches $4,000/oz and silver reaches $100/oz, Denarius Metals could potentially reach a stock price of $245 per share, assuming successful production, consistent costs, and no major obstacles in mining or permitting.
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