Update shared on 19 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.19%Analysts have marginally increased their fair value estimate for CSL from $246.49 to $246.96. This reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook as concerns over segment performance and revised vaccination forecasts are balanced by expectations of a market overreaction and longer-term recovery potential.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates on CSL provide balanced perspectives, highlighting both cautious and optimistic viewpoints in light of segment performance and revised guidance. These insights offer a deeper understanding of the drivers behind recent valuation adjustments and the outlook for the company.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see the recent share price decline as an overreaction and believe the current valuation presents a re-engagement opportunity for long-term investors.
- The company’s decision to defer its vaccine business demerger is viewed as a prudent move. This provides flexibility to adjust strategy amid uncertain vaccination rates.
- Despite short-term pressures, the company’s long-term growth prospects and market leadership remain intact in the eyes of optimistic researchers.
- Bearish analysts have noted that lowered vaccination rates in the United States have weighed on performance, particularly in the Seqirus segment. This has impacted revenue and forecasts.
- Downward revisions to earnings guidance, driven by lower Q4 expectations and cautious outlooks in segment presentations, have contributed to fair value adjustments.
- There is concern that prolonged weakness in vaccination rates and segment recovery could limit near-term outperformance. This has led some to favor a wait-and-see approach despite longer-term confidence.
What's in the News
- CSL Limited revised its earnings guidance for financial year 2026, lowering projected revenue growth from 4% to 5% to a new range of 2% to 3% because of first-half performance headwinds (Key Developments).
- Ken Lim, CSL's Chief Strategy Officer, will become Chief Financial Officer in October 2025. He will succeed Joy Linton, who will work with leadership on a transition before retiring (Key Developments).
- CSL entered a strategic collaboration with VarmX to develop VMX-C001, a novel treatment for restoring blood coagulation in patients on Factor Xa inhibitors. The agreement includes funding VarmX’s Phase 3 trial and an option for CSL to acquire VarmX, potentially involving milestone payments exceeding USD 2 billion (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from A$246.49 to A$246.96. This reflects minor upward adjustments in analyst assessments.
- Discount Rate increased from 6.81% to 6.96%. This suggests a marginally higher perceived risk or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth expectation has declined modestly from 4.39% to 4.21% per year.
- Net Profit Margin decreased from 21.82% to 21.64%, indicating slightly lower projected profitability.
- Future P/E Ratio has risen from 24.62x to 25.00x. This suggests higher valuation expectations for future earnings.
Disclaimer
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