CSL's analyst price target has been lowered from A$280.61 to A$246.49, reflecting analysts' revised expectations following recent updates about weaker revenue growth, a more cautious profit margin outlook, and continued challenges in key business units.

Analyst Commentary

Market analysts have offered mixed perspectives on CSL following recent trading updates and management commentary, resulting in shifts in both ratings and price targets. Their feedback centers on the company's growth drivers, execution risks, and the market’s current valuation of CSL's business prospects.

• Bullish analysts note that the recent share price decline following guidance adjustments has created a more attractive entry point, as the valuation now reflects much of the near-term uncertainty.
• Some view the downgrade to profit expectations as an exaggerated response, with core business fundamentals and long-term market opportunities remaining intact.
• The decision to defer a potential vaccine demerger is seen positively by some analysts because it could preserve value and provide flexibility until market conditions improve.
• Despite cautious near-term outlooks, there is a belief among bullish analysts that current levels offer an opportunity for investors to re-engage with a high-quality market leader.

• Bearish analysts remain concerned about ongoing revenue headwinds, particularly from the vaccine segment, where U.S. vaccination rates have not rebounded as expected.
• Cautious profit margin guidance and softer revenue growth forecasts point to operational challenges, which could affect earnings in the coming quarters.
• The indefinite postponement of the vaccine demerger introduces additional uncertainty, potentially limiting near-term catalysts for outperformance.
• Some are wary of repeatedly lowered estimates and suggest a wait-and-see approach until evidence of sustained improvement in key business divisions appears.

What's in the News

• CSL has revised its earnings guidance for financial year 2026, lowering expected revenue growth to 2% to 3% from the previous range of 4% to 5%. (Key Developments)
• Ken Lim, the current Chief Strategy Officer, will succeed Joy Linton as Chief Financial Officer effective October 7, 2025. This change is aimed at ensuring a smooth leadership transition. (Key Developments)
• CSL entered into a strategic collaboration with VarmX to fund late-stage development and commercialization of VMX-C001, a potential treatment for restoring blood coagulation in patients on FXa DOACs. (Key Developments)
• Health Canada has granted marketing authorization for ANDEMBRY (garadacimab), expanding CSL's range of therapies for hereditary angioedema. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered significantly from A$280.61 to A$246.49, indicating moderated expectations for future valuation.
• Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 6.76% to 6.81%. This reflects higher perceived risk or a greater required return.
• Revenue Growth: Reduced from 5.30% to 4.39%, pointing to more modest assumptions for topline expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Decreased from 22.63% to 21.82%, suggesting expectations of tighter profitability.
• Future P/E: Declined from 26.1x to 24.6x, signaling a lower multiple applied to projected earnings.