Update shared on 07 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.90%Analysts have raised their price target for TXNM Energy from $60.08 to $60.63 per share. This reflects revised margin and valuation assumptions, even as growth outlooks have become more restrained.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst coverage has offered a mixed outlook for TXNM Energy, reflecting both optimism regarding revised valuation levels and caution stemming from uncertainties in the company’s growth trajectory and external factors.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have increased price targets for TXNM Energy, citing improved margin assumptions and expectations for a more favorable valuation environment.
- Some believe the pending Blackstone Infrastructure takeover could establish a floor under the share price and anchor expectations near the acquisition value.
- There is confidence that TXNM Energy’s disciplined execution and operational adjustments can support stable returns despite a tempered growth environment.
- Revised guidance highlights resilient core business fundamentals, with the company maintaining consistent profitability even as overall industry growth moderates.
- Bearish analysts express reservations regarding TXNM Energy’s growth outlook and have downgraded their ratings as they see limited upside beyond the current acquisition valuation.
- Concerns persist about muted expansion opportunities, particularly given ongoing market constraints and competition in the sector.
- There is some caution around relying too heavily on takeover-driven price stabilization because uncertainties related to deal completion remain.
- Downgraded expectations also reflect a belief that operational risks could pressure future margin expansion and cap potential share price appreciation.
What's in the News
- Board meeting scheduled for September 23, 2025 to declare a regular quarterly dividend of $0.4075 per share on common stock. (Key Developments)
- Company files for regulatory approval of its proposed acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission, Public Utility Commission of Texas, and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The filings include proposals for a $105 million rate credit over four years, a $10 million contribution to the PNM Good Neighbor Fund, $35 million in economic development funding, and $25 million for technologies supporting New Mexico's carbon-free energy transition. (Key Developments)
- TXNM Energy files a $200 million Follow-on Equity Offering of common stock through an at the market transaction. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value per share has risen slightly from $60.08 to $60.63, reflecting updated valuation assumptions.
- Discount Rate has increased from 6.78% to 6.96%, suggesting a modestly higher risk assessment in the updated model.
- Revenue Growth projections have fallen significantly, moving from 7.96% previously to 5.61% in the latest analysis.
- Net Profit Margin expectations have increased from 18.29% to 20.11%, indicating improved operational efficiency or profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E ratio is expected to decline slightly from 20.18x to 19.75x, signaling a modest reduction in anticipated share price multiples.
Disclaimer
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