Update shared on 13 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.12%The analyst average price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) was lowered slightly, down from $23.27 to $23.24, as analysts cite a slowdown in express delivery volume growth and limited near-term consolidation opportunities.
Analyst Commentary
Analysts provided further insight into ZTO Express (Cayman)'s recent price target revisions, noting a mix of positive execution signals and sector-specific headwinds influencing sentiment.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts continue to highlight ZTO Express as maintaining "best-in-class" unit net profit. This supports resilience in profit margins relative to peers.
- The company’s efficient operational execution is viewed as a competitive advantage, enabling stable performance even during periods of slower delivery volume growth.
- Long-term opportunities for business expansion are seen as intact, provided the company can capitalize on ongoing supply chain optimization within the sector.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts note recent industry data pointing to express delivery volume growth slowing to about 10 percent year-over-year, which weighs on near-term top line expansion.
- There is concern that limited near-term consolidation opportunities may restrict further market share gains or cost efficiencies. This could potentially impact valuation growth.
- Slower sector momentum and macroeconomic uncertainty in China are viewed as factors that could continue to constrain both growth and investor sentiment in the coming quarters.
What's in the News
- The board will meet on November 19, 2025 to approve and publish unaudited financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025 (Board Meeting).
- The company revised its 2025 operating guidance downward and now projects parcel volume between 38.8 and 40.1 billion, indicating a 14% to 18% year-over-year increase. Management notes these estimates are subject to change (Corporate Guidance).
- ZTO Express announced a semi-annual dividend of USD 0.2900 per share, payable October 31, 2025, with a record date and ex-date of September 30, 2025 (Dividend Decreases).
- The company has completed repurchasing 50,899,498 shares, representing 6.24% of shares outstanding, for a total of $1,228.3 million under its ongoing buyback program announced in 2018 (Buyback Tranche Update).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target (Fair Value) has edged down marginally, from $23.27 to $23.24.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly, increasing from 8.26% to 8.58%.
- Revenue Growth Projection remains virtually unchanged at approximately 9.21% year-over-year.
- Net Profit Margin forecast has declined a bit, from 19.05% to 18.99%.
- Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio is expected to rise modestly from 14.33x to 14.52x.
Disclaimer
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