Update shared on18 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 7.65%Analysts have raised their price target for Alaska Air Group to $71.36, citing strengthening corporate demand, competitive easing, and long-term earnings tailwinds that outweigh near-term cost headwinds.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite accelerating corporate demand and easing competitive pressures as key drivers of improved outlook and de-risked near-term performance.
- Upward revisions to long-term earnings forecasts are supported by premium seat expansion, growth in loyalty programs, and successful global initiatives.
- Industry profits are increasingly concentrated among stronger players, and Alaska Air is seen as one of the primary beneficiaries, with profitability estimates for 2026-2027 above consensus.
- Attractive risk/reward profile at current share levels offset some concerns about the increased complexity of the business model, which is seen as being managed in a measured way.
- Bearish analysts point to ongoing near-term cost headwinds and more challenging Q3 guidance, leading to reduced price targets despite optimism for future quarters.
What's in the News
- Alaska Airlines is launching new nonstop Seattle–Seoul Incheon service on Hawaiian Airlines' 787-9 Dreamliner, starting September 12, with aggressive introductory promotions and enhanced loyalty benefits to position Seattle as a key global gateway (Key Developments).
- For Q2 and first half of 2025, Alaska Air Group reported robust growth: revenue passengers rose to 15.2M for the quarter (from 11.9M YoY) and 28.4M for six months (from 21.7M YoY); load factor stayed stable at ~83% (Key Developments).
- The company completed a major buyback, repurchasing 8.7M shares (7.1%) in Q2 and totaling 10.5M shares (8.53%) worth $535M under the December 2024 authorization (Key Developments).
- Despite short-term operational disruptions from a systemwide IT outage that grounded its fleet in July, management reaffirmed 2025 EPS guidance at a minimum of $3.25, with unit revenue trends expected to outperform industry peers and finish near the top of prior guidance (Periodicals, Key Developments).
- Four Alaska Airlines flight attendants have sued Boeing alleging physical and emotional injuries related to the 737 MAX 9 mid-cabin panel blowout, as continued safety and legal challenges draw attention following recent high-profile incidents (Reuters).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Alaska Air Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $66.29 to $71.36.
- The Future P/E for Alaska Air Group has risen from 6.87x to 7.25x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Alaska Air Group has risen slightly from 7.07% to 7.22%.
Disclaimer
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