Analysts have raised Alaska Air Group’s price target modestly—from $65.21 to $66.29—citing improving demand, a favorable competitive environment, and increased confidence in management’s disciplined handling of strategic changes.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite improving demand trends and favorable competitive capacity developments, boosting confidence in Alaska Air’s forward earnings outlook.
- The current share price offers what is seen as an attractive risk/reward balance.
- Analysts acknowledge concerns regarding the heightened complexity of Alaska Air’s business model following strategic changes.
- Notably, the company’s measured and disciplined approach to managing new risks has garnered greater analyst appreciation.
- Overall sentiment has shifted more positive, resulting in an upgraded rating and higher price target reflecting these factors.
What's in the News
- Alaska Air Group reported strong Q2 2025 operating results, with revenue passengers increasing to 15.2 million from 11.9 million, RPMs up to 20.2 billion from 15.3 billion, and ASMs rising to 24.1 billion from 18.2 billion year-over-year; load factor remained stable at 83.9% (Key Developments).
- The company confirmed full-year 2025 EPS guidance of at least $3.25 and expects unit revenue performance to lead the industry, ending less than 1% down from prior guidance (Key Developments).
- From April to June 2025, Alaska Air repurchased 8.7 million shares (7.1% of shares outstanding) for $427 million, completing a buyback of 10.5 million shares (8.5%) for $535 million under its current program (Key Developments).
- Alaska Air Group was added to multiple Russell growth and small/mid-cap indices in June 2025, including the Russell 1000, 2500, 3000, and Midcap Growth benchmarks (Key Developments).
- The airline recently suffered a system-wide software outage that grounded all flights for several hours (WSJ) and is indirectly involved in legal action, as four flight attendants sued Boeing over a 737 MAX 9 panel blowout incident on an Alaska Airlines flight (Reuters).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Alaska Air Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $65.21 to $66.29.
- The Future P/E for Alaska Air Group remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 6.81x to 6.90x.
- The Discount Rate for Alaska Air Group remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 10.55% to 10.45%.
Disclaimer
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