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FWRD: Stable Margins And Buyback Support Will Drive Future Share Price Recovery

Freight Recovery And Network Integration Will Transform Logistics

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FWRD
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 29 May 2025

Update shared on 11 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-20.8%
7D
-0.2%

Analysts have nudged their price target on Forward Air slightly higher to reflect stable fair value at $34.00, modestly improved long term profit margin expectations, and only minor adjustments to forecast growth and earnings multiples.

What's in the News

  • Forward Air shares dropped about 15% to $17.05 after an Axios Pro report indicated that a private equity deal for the company is not imminent (Axios Pro)
  • The company reported no share repurchases between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, despite having an authorized buyback program (company filing)
  • Forward Air has completed repurchasing 3,651,380 shares, representing 13.39% of its outstanding shares, for a total of $302.47 million under the buyback program announced on February 7, 2019 (company filing)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate, unchanged at $34.00 per share, indicating no revision to the core valuation anchor.
  • Discount Rate, stable at 12.5%, reflecting no change in the assumed risk profile or cost of capital.
  • Revenue Growth, effectively unchanged at about 4.7% per year, with only an immaterial numerical refinement in the model.
  • Net Profit Margin, risen slightly from about 4.66% to 4.66%, reflecting a modest improvement in long term profitability assumptions.
  • Future P/E, edged down slightly from about 12.0x to 12.0x, implying a marginally lower earnings multiple applied in the forward valuation.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.