Update shared on27 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 2.21%The consensus analyst price target for American Airlines Group has been revised upward to $13.88, as improving demand and fare trends offset cost pressures and drive more optimistic long-term earnings forecasts, though valuation concerns and peer competition remain headwinds.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts note improving demand and fare trends that are helping offset modest cost pressures in the airline sector.
- Q3 earnings and Q4 outlooks are expected to further demonstrate a performance gap between well-positioned airlines and less competitive peers.
- The path back to profitability remains more favorable for stronger carriers, while financially impaired airlines face continued challenges.
- New out-year earnings forecasts (2026–2027) show expectations above current consensus, guiding more optimistic price targets.
- Bearish analysts cite valuation concerns and a more balanced risk/reward profile as the stock nears prior targets, with competitive pressures from peers like Alaska Air also cited as headwinds.
What's in the News
- A hacker group reportedly breached American Airlines, exposing sensitive data of 2 million users, including names, contacts, account numbers, and Social Security numbers (Daily Dark Web, September 23, 2025).
- American Airlines launched a strategic partnership with STARLUX Airlines, enabling seamless ticketing and connections between North America and Taipei, with new routes and schedules coordinated to maximize traveler convenience (Key Developments, August 15, 2025).
- The airline expanded its Quebec City operations with a new direct route to Dallas-Fort Worth, increased Charlotte service, and continued its daily flights to Philadelphia and Chicago, further tapping into the U.S. tourism and cruise passenger markets (Key Developments, August 9, 2025).
- American Airlines’ board adopted amendments to company bylaws, modernizing director nomination/disclosure requirements, enforcing federal court forum selection for certain legal claims, and improving board governance flexibility (Key Developments, August 7, 2025).
- The company expects a third quarter loss per share of $0.10 to $0.60 but guides for full-year 2025 EPS between a loss of $0.20 and a profit of $0.80; it anticipates delivery of 50 new aircraft in 2025 and year-over-year domestic capacity growth slowing after Q3 peaks (Key Developments, July 24, 2025).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for American Airlines Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $13.58 to $13.88.
- The Future P/E for American Airlines Group has risen slightly from 7.13x to 7.35x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for American Airlines Group remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 4.5% per annum to 4.4% per annum.
Disclaimer
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