Update shared on12 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 4.64%Analysts have lowered Iridium Communications’ price target to $33.38, citing mounting competitive threats from SpaceX Starlink's spectrum acquisition and anticipated aggressive market entry strategies that may erode Iridium’s market share and profitability.
Analyst Commentary
- Increased competitive pressure due to SpaceX Starlink's acquisition of key wireless spectrum, enabling direct competition with Iridium’s core services.
- Expectation that Starlink will pursue aggressive market entry strategies, including seeking S-Band regulatory approvals in multiple countries.
- Anticipation of heightened competition in pricing, with Starlink leveraging its scale and resources to undercut Iridium’s offerings.
- Concerns about Starlink’s impact on Iridium’s satellite Internet of Things (IoT) business and market share.
- Price targets lowered in response to the potential for rapid erosion of Iridium’s growth prospects and profitability from the new competitive threat.
What's in the News
- Iridium lowered its 2025 total service revenue growth guidance to 3%-5%, down from 5%-7%; 2024 revenue was $614.9 million.
- The company repurchased 2,553,517 shares ($64.99 million) in Q2 2025; total buyback completed now 7,299,190 shares (6.58%) for $204.67 million.
- The Board declared a $0.15/share quarterly dividend for Q3 2025, reflecting a 5.5% increase in the annual dividend and continuing a trend of yearly increases since 2023.
- Iridium is partnering with NAL Research, SGM Technology AS, and Tschudi Shipping Company to create a resilient navigation and tracking solution for commercial shipping, leveraging Iridium’s LEO satellite network to combat increasing GPS/GNSS disruptions.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Iridium Communications
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $35.00 to $33.38.
- The Future P/E for Iridium Communications has fallen slightly from 20.72x to 19.75x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Iridium Communications remained effectively unchanged, at 4.7% per annum.
Disclaimer
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