Update shared on15 Aug 2025
Coherent’s price target was maintained as analysts balanced near-term concerns over modest results and elevated expectations with optimism on ongoing market share gains in high-speed optical markets and supportive long-term demand trends, leaving the consensus fair value unchanged at $111.44.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite slightly better than expected Q4 results, with Coherent trading at a significant discount to peers and suggesting opportunity on post-earnings weakness.
- Bearish analysts note underwhelming results and outlook relative to heightened expectations driven by the recent stock rally and strong AI-sector performance, predicting the stock will remain out of favor in the near term.
- Bullish analysts highlight Coherent’s ongoing strength in 800G and 1.6T markets, continued outperformance versus consensus, and emerging opportunities supporting further market share gains.
- Several analysts point to strong industry-wide drivers for optical transmission demand, with AI adoption and increasing data speed requirements benefiting Coherent, while cautioning that optical valuations now trade at meaningful premiums to historical norms and competition remains intense.
- Despite lumpy near-term datacom results, the long-term investment thesis for Coherent remains unchanged, with analysts encouraged by indications of accelerating business activity and expectations for double-digit growth in fiscal 2026.
What's in the News
- Coherent provided Q1 2026 revenue guidance in the range of $1.46 billion to $1.60 billion.
- Secured a new multiyear strategic supply agreement with Apple to supply VCSELs for Face ID features in iPhone and iPad, produced at the Sherman, Texas facility.
- Announced volume release of the CHR1065 56 Gbaud PAM4 TIA for 400G/800G optical transceivers, with strong performance and integration capabilities.
- Unveiled the ACE FL thulium fiber laser for advanced medical applications, including lithotripsy and BPH treatment, emphasizing precision, efficiency, and OEM integration.
- Launched a breakthrough diamond-loaded silicon carbide composite, enabling superior thermal management for AI datacenters and high-performance computing, significantly outperforming copper.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Coherent
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $111.44.
- The Discount Rate for Coherent remained effectively unchanged, at 8.69%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Coherent remained effectively unchanged, at 9.8% per annum.
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