Update shared on 18 Dec 2025
Analysts have modestly lowered their average price target on Zebra Technologies, trimming expectations by a few dollars per share to reflect concerns about slowing organic growth and a cautious extrapolation of the latest Q4 guidance into the medium term.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research on Zebra Technologies reflects a mixed but generally constructive stance, with pricing adjustments fine tuning expectations rather than signaling a wholesale change in the underlying thesis.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts see upside from disciplined execution, highlighting that management is navigating tariff headwinds better than feared and integrating the Elo Touch Solutions acquisition on attractive terms, which could support margins and long term earnings power.
- Some research previews raised price targets into the Q3 print, citing expectations for solid performance relative to prudently conservative organic growth assumptions and potential modest beats in industrial and construction end markets.
- Supportive views emphasize that data center and select automation driven demand pockets are likely to accelerate, providing a structural growth underpinning even as other verticals remain more mixed in the near term.
- Valuation is viewed as reasonable to attractive by bullish analysts, who argue that the recent pullback has already discounted slower near term growth, leaving room for multiple support if execution remains steady.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts have trimmed price targets in response to decelerating organic growth, pointing to the step down from mid single digit expansion earlier in the year to an expectation for flat performance in Q4.
- Cautious commentary focuses on investors extrapolating subdued Q4 guidance into 2026, which raises concern that the current slowdown could persist longer than management or the market previously anticipated.
- Some remain on the sidelines with Hold or equivalent ratings, arguing that while the long term franchise is intact, valuation already embeds a rebound in growth and leaves limited room for execution missteps.
- There is also apprehension that mixed demand trends across non data center markets and lingering tariff pressures could cap near term operating leverage, constraining upside to earnings estimates.
What's in the News
- Partnered with Salesforce to launch a joint Retail Cloud POS solution on Android, integrating Zebra mobile computers with Salesforce's cloud platform to tackle missed sales, slow training, and inventory inaccuracies while boosting frontline productivity. (Strategic Alliances)
- Released its 18th Annual Global Shopper Study, highlighting rising importance of Gen AI and automation in loss prevention and inventory visibility, as well as continued shopper frustration with out of stocks and operational frictions. (Product Related Announcements)
- Updated corporate governance by amending bylaws to require directors in uncontested elections to win a majority of votes cast in favor versus against. (Changes in Company Bylaws/Rules)
- Completed a major share repurchase tranche, buying back about 1.59 million shares for roughly $464 million under the authorization announced in 2022. (Buyback Tranche Update)
- Provided Q4 2025 guidance calling for sales growth of 8% to 11% year over year, largely driven by acquisitions and foreign exchange tailwinds. (Corporate Guidance)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Unchanged at an implied intrinsic value of approximately $358.47 per share, indicating no revision to long term valuation assumptions.
- Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from 8.89% to about 8.87%, reflecting a marginally lower perceived risk or cost of capital in the updated model.
- Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged, holding at roughly 6.89% annualized, signaling stable top line growth expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: Effectively flat at about 13.43%, indicating no material shift in long term profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E: Edged down slightly from 25.78x to roughly 25.77x, pointing to a marginally lower multiple applied in forward earnings valuation.
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