Update shared on 07 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 11%Analysts have raised their price target for Ouster from $35 to $39, citing recent Department of Defense certification and robust revenue growth as key drivers behind the more optimistic valuation.
Analyst Commentary
Recent upgrades and target price increases reflect analysts' shifting perspectives on Ouster's outlook as the company demonstrates both operational momentum and opportunities for further market penetration.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see Ouster's Department of Defense certification as a significant competitive advantage. They describe it as a material moat that could support future contracts and long-term revenue stability.
- Strong quarterly performance, including record-high revenue, has prompted upward revisions to price targets across multiple research firms.
- Expansion of the company's LiDAR offerings into new markets, such as defense applications and durable goods, is viewed as broadening Ouster's total addressable market.
- Accelerated momentum in core business segments suggests the company is delivering on execution and capitalizing on industry demand.
- Some analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of recent revenue trends and whether the DOD certification will lead to immediate large-scale contract wins.
- There is concern about execution risk as Ouster expands into new markets, where competition and customer adoption rates remain uncertain.
- Ongoing reliance on significant customer wins and government certifications introduces potential volatility in revenue forecasting and valuation assumptions.
What's in the News
- Ouster provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 and is projecting revenue between $39.5 million and $42.5 million (Key Developments).
- The company announced a strategic partnership with Constellis to deliver a unified security solution. This collaboration combines Constellis' LEXSO AI-driven sensor fusion platform with Ouster's Gemini and digital lidar technologies for global customers (Key Developments).
- Ouster expanded its BlueCity traffic management solution across Utah under a five-year contract with Econolite and the Utah Department of Transportation. This project covers over one hundred intersections to improve safety and efficiency (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Price Target: Increased from $35 to $39, reflecting growing confidence in Ouster's fundamentals.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.09% to 8.41%, indicating modestly higher perceived risk or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth: Marginally decreased from 38.68% to 38.12%, suggesting tempered expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved from 9.04% to 9.28%, showing a minor uptick in expected profitability.
- Future P/E Ratio: Increased from 101.94x to 108.02x, implying a higher valuation placed on projected earnings.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.