Update shared on 13 Dec 2025
Analysts have nudged their price target on NETGEAR modestly higher to approximately $39.00, reflecting slight adjustments to the discount rate and forward valuation assumptions, even as profit margin expectations ease marginally.
What's in the News
- Netgear shares surged about 10%, with the stock trading near $36.50, after reports that the U.S. administration may restrict TP-Link's operations in the country on national security grounds, potentially easing competitive pressure in consumer networking hardware (Bloomberg).
- The U.S. Commerce Department has proposed banning sales of TP-Link products in the United States, citing national security risks related to the company's China ties, a move that could reshape the competitive landscape for Netgear and other router makers (Washington Post).
- Netgear launched the Nighthawk 5G M7 Portable WiFi 7 Hotspot, a globally roaming, battery powered device that can connect up to 32 devices and supports a new eSIM Marketplace for on demand data plans in more than 140 countries.
- The company updated investors that it has completed a multi year share repurchase program, buying back roughly 3.97 million shares for about $80 million, equivalent to nearly 14% of shares outstanding under the plan.
- Management issued fourth quarter 2025 revenue guidance of $170 million to $185 million, which frames expectations for near term top line performance as the company advances its business transformation strategy.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: The intrinsic value estimate remains unchanged at approximately $39.00 per share, indicating no material reassessment of long term upside.
- Discount Rate: The discount rate has risen slightly from about 8.18% to roughly 8.22%, implying a modestly higher required return for investors.
- Revenue Growth: Long term revenue growth expectations are essentially unchanged at around 4.31% per year, reflecting a stable outlook for top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: The projected net profit margin has edged down slightly from about 10.00% to roughly 9.96%, signaling a minor reduction in expected profitability.
- Future P/E: The forward valuation multiple has increased marginally from roughly 16.8x to about 16.9x earnings, suggesting a slightly higher implied valuation for future earnings.
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