Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 34%Napco Security Technologies' consensus price target has been revised upward to $37.50 as analysts cite strong Q4 outperformance, accelerating high-margin recurring revenue, improved equipment demand, and margin expansion from StarLink services, despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
Analyst Commentary
- Strong Q4 performance with revenue and EPS exceeding expectations, driven by equipment outperformance and high-margin recurring service revenue accelerating to its highest sequential growth in six quarters.
- Improvement in demand environment, marked normalization of equipment revenues, and significant inventory reduction after disruptions caused by tariffs.
- Bullish analysts see Q4 as the final period of difficult year-over-year comparisons for equipment, anticipating a return to growth and improved line of sight for FY26.
- Continued uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions leads some bearish analysts to expect shares to remain range-bound until greater clarity on industry stabilization emerges.
- Napco's premium margin StarLink radio services and its leading position in locking, alarms, and access control are seen as key differentiators, with anticipated tailwinds from the ongoing copper wire replacement cycle.
What's in the News
- Napco Security Technologies completed the repurchase of 640,259 shares (1.76% of outstanding) for $16.15 million under the buyback announced on November 4, 2024.
- No shares were repurchased from April 1, 2025 to June 30, 2025.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Napco Security Technologies
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly risen from $30.08 to $37.50.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Napco Security Technologies has significantly risen from 5.9% per annum to 8.7% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Napco Security Technologies has significantly risen from 22.74x to 25.93x.
Disclaimer
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