Update shared on19 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.91%Apple’s consensus price target has risen to $240.69 as analysts cite accelerating services growth, positive regulatory outcomes, and easing China risks, though hardware demand and innovation concerns temper the outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight accelerating services growth, expecting Apple's ecosystem and shift toward services to drive further upside and justify higher valuation multiples.
- Demand indicators for the new iPhone 17 lineup are mixed: while lead times are tracking higher year-over-year for base models (signaling solid demand), demand for Pro and Pro Max models appears more muted compared to prior cycles.
- Easing headwinds including reduced China channel risk from price discounting and nearly eliminated tariff penalties have lessened downside fears, though some bearish analysts believe valuation is stretched amid persistent AI challenges and lack of significant innovation.
- Positive legal and regulatory outcomes—especially the DOJ-Google antitrust ruling—reinforce confidence in ongoing lucrative payments from Google, underpinning Services segment growth and improving negotiating leverage in search.
- Anticipated form factor changes (such as the introduction of iPhone Air) and potential for future foldable devices are seen as incrementally positive but not transformative, with investor enthusiasm tempered compared to cycles of major hardware innovation.
What's in the News
- Apple plans to launch its first MacBook Pro with a touchscreen using OLED and on-cell touch technology by late 2026, reflecting analysis of iPad user behavior and aiming to enhance productivity; a budget MacBook using an iPhone processor is also planned but will not initially feature touch support (Ming-Chi Kuo/X).
- iPhone sales in China fell 6% year-over-year prior to the iPhone 17 launch, and the company delayed the iPhone Air launch in China due to regulatory issues around eSIM technology (Bloomberg, South China Morning Post).
- Apple is accelerating efforts in AI, including exploring partnerships with Google to develop a revamped Siri using Gemini AI, but faces ongoing talent losses as key AI researchers and executives depart for rivals such as Meta and OpenAI (Bloomberg, FT).
- The company continues to reduce reliance on external chip suppliers by introducing its proprietary N1 wireless chipset in iPhone 17, and is pushing higher-premium device offerings with the 2TB iPhone 17 Pro Max at $1,999 and anticipated further price increases, including for future foldable models (DigiTimes, Bloomberg).
- Apple’s App Store and business practices face mounting legal and regulatory challenges globally, including delayed feature rollouts in response to EU and UK rules, landmark antitrust court losses in Australia, and ongoing investigations into its strategic market status and fees (BBC, ABC, Reuters, Washington Examiner).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Apple
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $236.19 to $240.69.
- The Future P/E for Apple has risen slightly from 31.36x to 31.99x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Apple remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 5.3% per annum to 5.4% per annum.
Disclaimer
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