Update shared on 18 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 25%Analysts have cut their price target on PagerDuty from approximately 16 dollars to 12 dollars. This reflects more cautious assumptions for revenue growth, profitability and valuation multiples.
What's in the News
- PagerDuty achieved the Amazon Web Services Resilience Services Competency in the software category, becoming one of the first AWS Software Partners to earn the designation and validating its ability to support mission critical, always on workloads (AWS partnership announcement).
- The company provided fourth quarter fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting revenue of 122 million to 124 million dollars, implying flat to 2 percent growth, and net income per diluted share of 0.24 to 0.25 dollars (company guidance).
- PagerDuty raised its full year fiscal 2026 earnings outlook, now expecting 5 percent revenue growth to 490 million to 492 million dollars and a higher implied operating margin of about 24 percent, despite trimming the top line range slightly (company guidance).
- PagerDuty launched an end to end AI agent suite, with early customers reporting up to 50 percent faster incident resolution, reduced on call fatigue, and thousands of engineering hours reclaimed, supported by more than 150 platform enhancements and deeper integrations with tools like Slack, Microsoft Teams, and Backstage (product launch announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Reduced significantly from 16 dollars to 12 dollars per share, reflecting a more conservative outlook.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from about 9.14 percent to about 9.43 percent, implying a marginally higher required return.
- Revenue Growth: Cut meaningfully from roughly 6.0 percent to about 3.25 percent, signaling lower expected top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Reduced sharply from approximately 12.88 percent to about 4.56 percent, indicating a more cautious profitability profile.
- Future P/E: Raised substantially from around 26.1x to about 59.0x, implying a higher multiple on lower forecast earnings.
Have other thoughts on PagerDuty?
Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.
Create NarrativeDisclaimer
AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.