Update shared on04 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 9.37%The consensus price target for Fair Isaac has been revised downward, primarily reflecting reduced growth expectations and a notable compression in the company's future P/E multiple, resulting in a fair value decrease from $2,123 to $1,924.
What's in the News
- FICO announced the upcoming rollout of FICO® Score 10 BNPL and FICO® Score 10 T BNPL, the first major credit scores to integrate “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) data, reflecting changing consumer credit behavior and aiming to broaden financial inclusion (Wall Street Journal; FICO Product-Related Announcements).
- The company revised its full-year 2025 guidance upwards, now expecting revenues of $1.98 billion and GAAP net income of $630 million, but projects a sequential revenue decline to $505 million in Q4 2025 due to lower point-in-time revenues, notably from Insurance Scores and Software licenses (FICO Corporate Guidance).
- Fair Isaac completed share repurchases totaling $119.91 million in late June and $798.94 million since July 2024, under an authorized $1 billion buyback program (Buyback Tranche Updates).
- FICO was recently dropped as a constituent from the Russell 1000 Defensive, Growth-Defensive, and Value-Defensive Indexes (Index Constituent Drops).
- Key client initiatives include the launch of the FICO Score Mortgage Simulator via MeridianLink, deeper penetration in non-GSE mortgage lending with Guild Mortgage, a digital partnership with Vitality for claims optimization, a new partnership with MI New York for credit education outreach, and product innovation such as the FICO Marketplace and advanced AI-driven fraud detection tools (Client and Product-Related Announcements).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Fair Isaac
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $2123 to $1924.
- The Future P/E for Fair Isaac has significantly fallen from 58.32x to 50.56x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Fair Isaac has fallen from 15.6% per annum to 14.7% per annum.
Disclaimer
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