Update shared on 16 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.0078%Fair Isaac's analyst price target has seen a modest decrease, as updated guidance and a slightly lower projected profit margin have led analysts to trim fair value estimates by less than $1 to $2,016. This adjustment is due to more conservative forecasts and ongoing uncertainty in the mortgage sector.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research on Fair Isaac reflects both positive momentum and key points of caution, as analysts adjust ratings and price targets in response to new information and changing forecasts.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight the implementation of FICO 10T as an incremental positive. Improved predictive accuracy could reinforce Fair Isaac's dominant market position in credit scoring.
- Price targets were raised by several bullish analysts. Some underscored strong fiscal fourth quarter results and constructive views on the company’s fiscal 2026 outlook, indicating confidence in continued growth and execution.
- The recent launch of the mortgage direct license program is considered a clear positive for potential revenue growth. This program effectively increases the price per mortgage from $4.95 to $10.
- Bullish analysts point to Fair Isaac's consistent top and bottom line growth, strong pricing power, and the resilience of its business model. They view valuation pressures as presenting attractive entry points.
- Bearish analysts note that some price targets have been trimmed following fiscal fourth quarter results that missed expectations. This was driven by a challenging quarter in software and a more conservative outlook for fiscal 2026.
- Caution is emerging around potential regulatory uncertainty and possible share loss to competing scoring models. Some see Fair Isaac’s current valuation as full after a notable stock gain in recent months.
- There are concerns that the increased transparency from bypassing credit bureaus within the new licensing program presents infrastructure challenges and unpredictable impacts on the broader credit ecosystem.
- Market participants have observed that overall estimates for Fair Isaac are being reduced as a result of ongoing uncertainty in the mortgage sector and hesitance about the durability of near-term revenue gains.
What's in the News
- UBS raised its price target on FICO to $1,590 from $1,540 and maintained a Neutral rating on the shares (UBS).
- FICO was awarded 10 new U.S. and Canadian patents, strengthening its leadership in Responsible AI, bias detection, fraud prevention, and data privacy.
- FICO partnered with PostFinance to expand the use of FICO Falcon Fraud Manager and Customer Communication Services, protecting 2.4 million customers in Switzerland from payment fraud.
- Xactus became the first verification provider to finalize a multi-year agreement in the FICO Mortgage Direct License Program, enabling direct score delivery to lenders and reducing fees for the U.S. mortgage industry.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target declined marginally by less than $1, from $2,016.60 to $2,016.44.
- Discount Rate decreased slightly from 8.62% to 8.61%.
- Revenue Growth Forecast fell from 18.47% to 17.73%.
- Net Profit Margin decreased from 38.43% to 36.50%.
- Future P/E Ratio dropped moderately from 46.13x to 45.76x.
Disclaimer
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