BILL: Activist Pressure And Sale Exploration Will Unlock Upside Potential

The analyst price target for BILL Holdings has been trimmed modestly by about $1 to reflect a slightly lower fair value and profit margin outlook, with analysts citing recent target reductions amid more conservative assumptions for net adds and core revenue growth, partly offset by still solid mid-teens growth expectations and support from new Buy initiations.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts remain constructive on BILL Holdings despite modest target reductions, highlighting a combination of operational execution, activist involvement and an improving growth trajectory as key supports for valuation. While some price targets have been trimmed, the stock continues to be framed as a catch up opportunity as estimates stabilize and medium term growth drivers come into focus.

Recent initiations and upgrades underscore the view that BILL still offers attractive potential for investors willing to look through near term volatility in net adds and core revenue growth. Activist shareholders are also seen as an important catalyst for sharpening strategic priorities and driving more disciplined capital allocation.

Bullish Takeaways

• Multiple bullish analysts continue to rate the shares at Buy with price targets in the low to mid $60s and low $70s, reflecting a view of meaningful upside from current levels based on normalized earnings power.
• Coverage initiation with a Buy rating and a $71 target reflects the view that BILL's software driven B2B payments platform delivers differentiated value and can support mid teens or better core growth over time, which in turn supports a premium multiple.
• Activist involvement from well known investors is viewed as a potential positive catalyst that could accelerate key performance indicators, sharpen cost discipline and unlock additional shareholder value.
• Bullish analysts argue that core revenue growth may be approaching a near term trough, with the potential to re accelerate as easier comparisons and embedded solutions partnerships begin to contribute more meaningfully, which could improve both growth visibility and valuation support.

What's in the News

• BILL is exploring strategic options, including a potential sale, and is working with a financial adviser to gauge interest from larger rivals and private equity buyers (Bloomberg).
• Reports of sale discussions pushed BILL shares up roughly 14% in after hours trading, though talks are still at an early stage with no guarantee of a deal (Reuters).
• Activist investor Barington Capital sent a letter to BILL’s board urging cost cuts and a review of all strategic alternatives, arguing the company is undervalued and a strong acquisition candidate (company statement).
• BILL issued new guidance projecting fiscal 2026 revenue of roughly $1.60 billion to $1.63 billion and fiscal Q2 2025 revenue of $394.5 million to $404.5 million (company guidance).
• BILL launched BILL AI, a suite of intelligent agents that automate tasks like W 9 collection, receipt reconciliation and onboarding, aiming to cut back office friction for small and midsize businesses (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: reduced slightly from approximately $80.88 to $80.33 per share, reflecting a modestly lower long term outlook.
• Discount Rate: increased marginally from about 9.42% to 9.45%, implying a slightly higher required return and risk premium.
• Revenue Growth: inched up from roughly 18.06% to 18.17%, indicating a small improvement in long term growth expectations.
• Net Profit Margin: edged down from about 8.63% to 8.53%, signaling slightly more conservative profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E: lowered from around 49.0x to 46.9x, suggesting a modest compression in the multiple applied to forward earnings.