The analyst price target for Vertex has been reduced from $35 to $28. Analysts point to continued revenue retention challenges and leadership uncertainty, despite stable results and a strong market position.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst perspectives on Vertex remain mixed, with both positive and cautionary themes emerging in the latest research notes. Recent price target revisions and commentary reflect ongoing debates around the company’s growth trajectory, valuation, and organizational stability.

• Bullish analysts point to the company’s strong competitive positioning as one of the leading providers in the enterprise indirect tax market.
• There is confidence that headwinds related to growth and margins may be temporary. Some expect a potential return to high-teens growth as management leverages multiple strategic initiatives.
• Recent earnings reports have demonstrated profitability that exceeds estimates, which helps to alleviate concerns around the impact of recent leadership changes.
• Long-term outlooks remain in place, suggesting that management has not stepped back from ambitious growth objectives despite short-term challenges.

• Bearish analysts remain concerned about continued declines in net revenue retention, which are driven by customer churn and deprecation of legacy deployments.
• There is uncertainty surrounding the recent CEO transition. Some believe that investor confidence may remain on hold until leadership stability is clearer.
• Recent reductions in price targets reflect caution regarding execution risks and the challenging revenue environment in the near term.
• Lowered guidance for future periods has contributed to a more cautious approach, indicating expectations for slower growth relative to prior forecasts.

What's in the News

• Vertex announced a share repurchase program of up to $150 million in Class A common stock with no expiration date. (Buyback Transaction Announcements)
• The Board of Directors authorized a new buyback plan, approved on October 30, 2025. (Buyback Transaction Announcements)
• David DeStefano will retire as Chief Executive Officer on November 10, 2025, and will be succeeded by Christopher Young, a veteran leader from Microsoft and McAfee. David will transition to non-executive Chairperson of the Board. (Executive Changes: CEO)
• Vertex provided updated third quarter 2025 earnings guidance, projecting approximately $192 million in total revenue, up from $170.4 million in the same period last year. (Corporate Guidance: New/Confirmed)
• The company lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $750.0 to $754.0 million, citing extended sales cycles and delayed customer decisions impacting contract signings. (Corporate Guidance: Lowered)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value has decreased slightly to $36.79 from $37.23.
• Discount Rate has risen marginally to 8.71% from 8.66%.
• Revenue Growth projection remains nearly unchanged at 14.62%.
• Net Profit Margin is stable, with only a negligible decrease to 6.69%.
• Future P/E has fallen slightly to 112.2x from 113.4x.