TENB: Earnings Preview Will Drive Upside Amid Lowered Price Objective

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Tenable Holdings to $40.00 from $44.00. This reflects updated earnings preview models and slightly higher assumed discount rates, while growth and margin expectations remain largely unchanged.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts view the reiterated Overweight stance as a signal that Tenable's long term growth thesis remains intact despite modest valuation adjustments.
• They point to resilient demand for cybersecurity solutions as a driver of sustained top line expansion that can support the new price target over time.
• Execution on product roadmap and platform adoption is seen as tracking well enough to defend premium multiples relative to slower growing security peers.
• The updated model, while more conservative on discount rates, still assumes solid margin improvement as scale benefits and operating discipline flow through.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts interpret the lower price target as evidence that valuation headroom has narrowed, leaving less room for execution missteps near upcoming earnings.
• They highlight sensitivity to macro and IT spending trends, which could pressure billings growth and challenge the implied growth trajectory in the refreshed models.
• Concerns remain that competitive intensity in cybersecurity could limit Tenable's ability to sustain pricing power and incremental margin gains embedded in forecasts.
• The higher assumed discount rates in the updated models underscore risk around long duration cash flows, particularly if growth decelerates faster than expected.

What's in the News

• Tenable completed a major share repurchase tranche, buying back 1,989,000 shares between July 1 and September 30, 2025, and finishing a program totaling 8,274,013 shares, or 6.91% of shares outstanding, for $299.91 million (Key Developments).
• The recently completed buyback is expected to provide earnings per share support and signals management's confidence in the company valuation and long term growth outlook (Key Developments).
• For the fourth quarter of 2025, Tenable guided to revenue of $249.1 million to $253.1 million, with income from operations of $4.0 million to $8.0 million and a diluted net loss per share of $0.05 to $0.02 (Key Developments).
• For full year 2025, the company projected revenue of $988.0 million to $992.0 million, with a diluted net loss per share expected in the range of $0.34 to $0.31, reflecting ongoing investment while approaching profitability on an operating basis (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $37.89 per share, indicating no adjustment to the intrinsic value estimate despite model tweaks.
• Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 8.76% to approximately 8.85%, reflecting a modestly higher required return on future cash flows.
• Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at around 8.48% annually, suggesting stable expectations for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at roughly 3.28%, indicating no material change in long term profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E: Edged up slightly from about 138.7x to roughly 139.1x, pointing to a marginally higher implied valuation multiple on forward earnings.