QBTS: Government Support And AT&T Expansion Will Drive Future Quantum Adoption

Analysts trimmed the fair value estimate for D-Wave Quantum to about $25.09 from $26.35, reflecting a slightly higher discount rate and lower profit margin assumptions, even as they incorporated expectations for very large revenue growth and a reduced future P/E multiple supported by recent sector-wide Buy ratings and refreshed price targets in the $29 to $45 range.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on D-Wave Quantum points to strong interest in quantum computing, with several firms assigning Buy ratings and setting price targets between $29 and $45. Across these reports, analysts focus on the company’s dual platform roadmap, enterprise demand for quantum computing as a service, and government support for the broader quantum ecosystem as key elements of the long term story.

Multiple research notes highlight D-Wave Quantum’s investor day as an important event. Analysts point to higher system sales cadence, references to system deliveries already in negotiation, and emphasis on commercial use cases as reasons for their constructive stance. Some also reference a longer gate model roadmap and specific error correction metrics as signposts they plan to track over time.

Government policy is another theme. One report links recent executive orders aimed at strengthening the US quantum computing ecosystem and post quantum cryptography to increased attention on companies such as D-Wave Quantum. Another points to US$2b in potential Department of Commerce funding for the quantum ecosystem as a signal of how policymakers view the sector’s long term importance, especially for national defense and security applications.

Across the sector, one research house describes quantum computing as a space where it is still early and suggests that a portfolio approach across several quantum stocks may be appropriate. In that context, D-Wave Quantum is often grouped alongside other listed quantum computing companies and is seen as part of a broader, high growth but still developing industry.

Even where earnings or revenue results miss expectations, some analysts still reference what they view as clear demand for D-Wave Quantum’s technology. They focus on larger enterprise customers using its services, emerging commercial applications, and a shift toward recurring quantum computing as a service contracts as areas they are watching closely over the next few years.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts have trimmed price targets for D-Wave Quantum into the high US$20s and low US$40s, which they see as better aligned with the company’s updated outlook and recent trading range.
• Some cautious views tie lower targets to model revisions after quarterly results, including revenue that fell short of expectations and a need to reassess execution risk against previously more optimistic assumptions.
• Concerns also focus on valuation risk, with bearish analysts questioning whether current price levels fully reflect uncertainties around system sales cadence, commercialization timing, and the scale of future enterprise adoption.
• A few reports highlight that even with strong bookings, there is still execution risk around converting interest and letters of intent into sustained revenue growth, which could affect how investors value D-Wave Quantum over time.

What’s in the News for D-Wave Quantum

• D-Wave Quantum and AT&T expanded their partnership to use D-Wave’s annealing quantum computing within AT&T’s network operations, where AT&T reports cutting processing time for a network optimization workload from about one hour to less than 15 seconds, with plans to explore additional use cases such as outage management and technician routing. (Source: Company announcement, AT&T agreement)
• AT&T is also assessing D-Wave Quantum’s forthcoming gate model systems for potential use in quantum security and communications as part of a wider effort that combines quantum computing with AI, automation, and advanced analytics in its network. (Source: Company announcement, AT&T agreement)
• D-Wave Quantum plans to transfer its stock exchange listing from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq, with trading on Nasdaq expected to start on July 27, 2026 under the ticker QBTS, following the close of trading on the NYSE on July 24, 2026. (Source: D-Wave listing announcement)
• The U.S. National Science Foundation selected D-Wave Quantum to receive a US$1,566,250 grant under the National Quantum Virtual Laboratory program, supporting its role in the ERASE project focused on fault tolerant quantum computing and dual rail gate model hardware and software. (Source: NSF grant announcement)
• D-Wave Quantum outlined a gate model roadmap that targets 100 logical qubits able to perform more than one million operations by 2032, using dual rail qubits and hardware level error detection, and introduced Lambda as a key metric for measuring error reduction progress. (Source: Product roadmap announcement)

Valuation Changes for D-Wave Quantum

• The fair value estimate has been reduced slightly to about $25.09 from $26.35.
• The discount rate has risen slightly to about 8.54% from 8.44%.
• The revenue growth assumption is now very large at about 121% compared with about 62% previously.
• The profit margin assumption has been trimmed modestly to about 11.96% from about 12.75%.
• The future P/E multiple has been lowered to about 905x from about 1,104x.