Update shared on19 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 3.16%The consensus analyst price target for Open Text has edged up to $35.90, as optimism around its AI positioning, solid Q4 results, business optimization, and buybacks is partially offset by leadership uncertainty, resulting in a modest fair value increase.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite OpenText’s positioning as a developing artificial intelligence play and anticipate multiple catalysts over the next six months that could draw renewed investor attention and support a clearer growth narrative.
- Solid Q4 results, in-line or above management guidance and consensus, and encouraging fiscal 2026 guidance (including organic growth and high-end EBITDA margin prospects) have reinforced optimism regarding business execution.
- Business optimization plans and management’s achievement of margin targets, along with a $300 million share buyback program and signals of a return to tuck-in cloud M&A, are noted as signs of business stabilization following a volatile FY25.
- Changes in leadership, specifically the departure of the CEO and recent exit of the CFO, have introduced uncertainty around the company’s future direction and strategic leadership, prompting bearish analysts to downgrade their ratings and reduce price targets.
- Mixed analyst sentiment reflects ongoing evaluation of the evolving asset mix, cloud momentum, and the need for greater clarity on leadership and portfolio-shaping initiatives before a more constructive view can be widely adopted.
What's in the News
- Barclays raised OpenText’s price target to $33 from $29, citing a strong Q4 sales beat and positive fiscal 2026 guidance, but maintains an Equal Weight rating (Barclays periodical).
- OpenText announced the appointment of James McGourlay, a 25-year company veteran, as Interim CEO following the immediate departure of Mark J. Barrenechea; the company also faces a CFO transition with Chadwick Westlake leaving, replaced on an interim basis by Chief Accounting Officer Cosmin Balota (Key Developments).
- The Board approved a new share repurchase program for up to 24.9 million shares ($300 million) expiring August 2026, with 6.1 million shares repurchased for $170 million from April–July 2025, and total buybacks under previous authorization reaching 15.3 million shares ($436 million; 5.87% of shares) (Key Developments).
- OpenText raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to $0.2750 per share, with a record date of September 5, 2025 and payment on September 19, 2025 (Key Developments).
- The company advanced its private and sovereign cloud strategy, launching a Canadian Sovereign Cloud in partnership with TELUS to address data residency and AI innovation for government and regulated sectors, alongside a major Cloud Editions (CE 25.3) release with enhanced AI, security, and SAP integration features (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Open Text
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $34.80 to $35.90.
- The Future P/E for Open Text has fallen slightly from 12.41x to 11.90x.
- The Discount Rate for Open Text remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 9.86% to 9.80%.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.