Update shared on 17 Dec 2025
Analysts have made no changes to their fair value estimate for OneSpan, maintaining the target at $16.50 per share. They view the minor adjustments in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions as too small to alter their overall outlook.
What's in the News
- Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank selected OneSpan and SCSK for Japan's first cloud based FIDO mobile banking authentication deployment, aiming to combat rising phishing and account takeover fraud amid stricter FSA multi factor rules (client announcement).
- SuMiTB plans to embed FIDO authentication directly into mobile banking transactions, targeting one of Japan's most advanced security frameworks to reduce impersonation and deliver a smoother digital experience (client announcement).
- OneSpan completed a share repurchase of 447,743 shares, or about 1.17 percent of outstanding stock, for 6.3 million dollars under its previously announced buyback program (buyback tranche update).
- The company lowered its 2025 revenue outlook to a range of 239 million to 241 million dollars, down from a prior range of 245 million to 251 million dollars, reflecting softer expectations across software, services, and hardware (corporate guidance).
- OneSpan made a strategic investment in ThreatFabric, adding mobile threat intelligence and behavioral risk analytics to its offering to better detect malware assisted and social engineering based fraud in financial services (client announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: unchanged at $16.50 per share, indicating no reassessment of long term intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate: increased very slightly, with the weighted average cost of capital effectively stable versus prior assumptions.
- Revenue Growth: essentially unchanged, with projected long term annual growth holding at approximately 1.8 percent.
- Net Profit Margin: effectively flat, with the long run margin assumption maintained at about 16.2 percent.
- Future P/E: marginally higher, but the forward valuation multiple remains effectively in line with the previous 18.8 times assumption.
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