MNDY: Upmarket Expansion And AI Adoption Will Drive Medium-Term Upside

Our monday.com price target has been trimmed slightly to approximately $235 per share, as analysts modestly recalibrate assumptions around discount rates and longer sales cycles while still highlighting the company's resilient upmarket momentum and multi product growth opportunity.

Analyst Commentary

Street research has turned more balanced following the latest earnings print, with most firms trimming price targets but maintaining constructive long term views on monday.com's competitive position and growth algorithm. The debate now centers on the durability of upmarket execution and multi product expansion relative to near term demand friction and a higher execution bar embedded in prior expectations.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that despite lowered price targets, ratings remain largely positive, indicating confidence that the recent pullback has improved the risk reward profile relative to the company's multiyear growth opportunity.
• Several reports underscore accelerating RPO bookings, stronger $50k plus net dollar retention, and improving large customer additions, which support a thesis of durable upmarket expansion and a mix shift toward higher value cohorts.
• Management's reaffirmed 2027 revenue target of approximately $1.8 billion and commentary around better than expected AI adoption and multi product traction are viewed as underappreciated drivers of medium term revenue scale and margin leverage.
• Some bullish analysts see monday.com as one of the more differentiated high growth, high margin software assets, arguing that conservative guidance and trimmed targets reset expectations to levels that are more achievable, which can rebuild credibility over the next several quarters.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts focus on elongating sales cycles, softer small business net new additions, and choppiness in the lower end of the market, which together point to slower near term bookings and greater macro sensitivity than previously assumed.
• The lack of a fiscal 2025 revenue raise, a skinnier beat versus prior quarters, and a Q4 outlook that modestly missed consensus are seen as signs that the company's historic beat and raise cadence may be normalizing, which could pressure the premium valuation.
• Concerns are rising that early AI related search and top of funnel headwinds, combined with inconsistent execution, are feeding into a broader bear narrative on horizontal software vendors, potentially capping multiple expansion until growth re accelerates.
• At least one cautious view now sees incremental risk to the 2027 revenue outlook, arguing that the current transition upmarket, while strategically sound, introduces greater forecasting uncertainty and raises the bar for sustained high twenties growth off a larger base.

What's in the News

• Announced a three year partnership as the Official Global Work Management Partner of the Bonds Flying Roos, the Australian SailGP team co owned by Hugh Jackman and Ryan Reynolds, supporting mission critical racing operations across continents (Client Announcements).
• Highlighted as a key multi year partner of the Bonds Flying Roos alongside Blueberry, with monday.com unifying performance planning, logistics, content production, and race week execution on its AI first platform (Client Announcements).
• Issued guidance for fourth quarter 2025 revenue of $328 million to $330 million, up 22 percent to 23 percent year over year, and full year 2025 revenue of $1,226 million to $1,228 million, representing approximately 26 percent growth (Corporate Guidance).
• Authorized a share repurchase program of up to $870 million of ordinary shares, following board approval of a buyback plan in mid September 2025 (Buyback Transaction Announcements).
• Unveiled the next wave of AI driven product innovations at its Elevate customer conference, including monday agents, monday magic, monday vibe, monday sidekick, and the new monday campaigns product within monday CRM, with early customers already building over 17,000 apps on monday vibe (Product Related Announcements).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Risen slightly from approximately $234.58 to $235.20 per share, reflecting a modest upward adjustment in intrinsic value assumptions.
• Discount Rate: Increased slightly from about 10.62 percent to 10.71 percent, implying a marginally higher required return and risk premium.
• Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged, with the estimate holding at roughly 20.52 percent, indicating stable top line growth expectations.
• Net Profit Margin: Fallen slightly from around 10.69 percent to 10.65 percent, suggesting a modestly more conservative long term profitability outlook.
• Future P/E: Risen slightly from about 78.56x to 79.32x, pointing to a small uptick in the multiple applied to forward earnings.