Update shared on03 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 11%MongoDB's analyst price target has increased significantly from approximately $317 to nearly $351. Analysts cite improved growth visibility, stronger profit margins, and expanding opportunities in AI-driven applications as key drivers behind the upward revision.
Analyst Commentary
Following the recent upward revision of MongoDB's price target, analysts have voiced a spectrum of opinions about the company's prospects. While there is broad optimism about MongoDB’s growth trajectory, particularly in the context of AI-driven opportunities, some cautious notes remain regarding competitive pressures and the timing of certain catalysts.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight MongoDB's clear momentum in AI-native applications, noting accelerating adoption among both new and existing enterprise customers. The platform's integration of vector search and AI-specific data capabilities is seen as key to solidifying its position in the broader AI data infrastructure market.
- Multiple upward price target revisions reflect confidence in sustained revenue and consumption growth, supported by MongoDB Atlas continuing to drive a larger share of results and expansion into strategic, upmarket accounts.
- Recent investor and analyst events showcased the company’s commitment to margin expansion and durable long-term profitability. Bullish analysts point to a reinforced financial framework along with three to five year growth targets that support premium valuation multiples.
- Strategic initiatives, such as extending previously Atlas-exclusive features to the broader product portfolio and launching new modernization platforms, are viewed as expanding MongoDB’s addressable market and strengthening customer stickiness.
- Bearish analysts maintain caution around the timing and materiality of AI as a growth tailwind for MongoDB, viewing many generative AI workloads as still in the early adoption phase. This introduces uncertainty about how quickly AI revenues will ramp in the near term.
- Concerns persist regarding competitive pressures, particularly from incumbent relational and document database providers as well as open-source options gaining traction among developers.
- Some analysts express that recent financial targets are broad, which might limit short-term valuation upside and leave room for ongoing revision as execution unfolds.
- While overall execution has improved, a few note that management's mid to long term targets and certain growth initiatives may face external headwinds and recommend a cautious wait-and-see approach.
What's in the News
- Launched MongoDB AMP, an AI-powered Application Modernization Platform designed to help enterprises rapidly transform legacy applications into modern, scalable services. This platform aims to accelerate code transformation and overall modernization projects. (Key Developments)
- Announced a range of product innovations and expansions of its AI partner ecosystem, including new embedding models (voyage-context-3, voyage-3.5, and voyage-3.5-lite). The company also highlighted integration with partners such as Galileo and LangChain to streamline and enhance AI application development. (Key Developments)
- Completed a share repurchase of 929,674 shares for $200.68 million as part of its previously announced buyback program. (Key Developments)
- Issued earnings guidance for Q3 and the full fiscal year 2026, projecting quarterly revenue between $587 million and $592 million and annual revenue between $2.34 billion and $2.36 billion. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has increased from $317 to $351, reflecting a notable upward revision.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.71 percent to 8.79 percent.
- Revenue Growth has shown a mild improvement, moving from 16.75 percent to 16.95 percent.
- Net Profit Margin has expanded significantly, increasing from 14.2 percent to 35.9 percent.
- Future P/E has declined sharply from 8,070x to 3,507x. This suggests improved future earnings expectations relative to price.
Disclaimer
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