INTU: OpenAI Partnership Will Drive AI Agents And Credit Platform Upside

Analysts have raised their price target on Intuit to $875 per share, citing the de risking impact of its new OpenAI partnership and a more bullish outlook for Credit Karma revenue growth.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts view the OpenAI partnership as removing a key competitive overhang, supporting higher confidence in Intuit's long term earnings power and justifying a premium valuation multiple.
• The integration with OpenAI's large user base is seen as a catalyst to accelerate adoption of Intuit's AI driven, agent based offerings, potentially expanding the total addressable market and driving multi year revenue growth.
• Stronger new credit card account growth at major banks and robust trends in personal loans and insurance are interpreted as leading indicators of upside for Credit Karma transaction based revenue.
• With both AI and Credit Karma trends skewing positively, bullish analysts argue that execution risk is moderating, increasing the probability that Intuit can outperform current growth and margin expectations.

Bearish Takeaways

• More cautious analysts note that the benefits of the OpenAI partnership may take time to fully monetize, creating potential gaps between elevated expectations and near term financial delivery.
• There is concern that increased dependence on third party AI infrastructure could pressure unit economics over time if model access or pricing terms become less favorable.
• Some worry that recent strength in credit and lending activity may prove cyclical, leaving Credit Karma growth vulnerable if consumer credit trends or underwriting standards tighten.
• Given the stock's strong run and higher target price, bearish analysts highlight less room for error on execution, with any slowdown in AI adoption or Credit Karma momentum likely to weigh disproportionately on the valuation.

What's in the News

• The IRS plans to end its Direct File free tax filing program, with the Trump administration steering taxpayers toward private software providers. This shift highlights Intuit and H&R Block as key sector players (Wall Street Journal).
• Intuit announces a multi-year strategic partnership with OpenAI, investing over $100 million to deepen use of frontier models, power AI agents across its platform, and launch Intuit-powered apps inside ChatGPT for personalized financial actions.
• The company rolls out new AI and Agentic AI experiences across Credit Karma and TurboTax, positioning its Consumer Platform as an all-in-one hub for automated credit building, debt management, and tax filing.
• Intuit introduces Intuit Intelligence and new AI agents across its all-in-one platform, including enhancements to QuickBooks and Intuit Enterprise Suite, to automate workflows and deliver instant, data-backed recommendations for businesses and accountants.
• New AI agents become globally available on Intuit's all-in-one QuickBooks platform, with the company estimating up to 12 hours a month in time savings for UK SMBs through automated bookkeeping, customer management, financial insights, and VAT support.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: unchanged at approximately $805 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value estimate.
• Discount Rate: risen slightly from about 8.50 percent to 8.58 percent, reflecting a modest increase in the assumed cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth: edged up marginally from roughly 12.77 percent to 12.79 percent, signaling a slightly more optimistic long term growth outlook.
• Net Profit Margin: dipped fractionally from about 23.17 percent to 23.15 percent, implying a nearly flat long run profitability assumption.
• Future P/E: increased slightly from around 43.49x to 43.58x, suggesting a modestly higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.