INTU: Upcoming Regulatory Shift Will Drive Segment Momentum Into 2025

The average analyst price target for Intuit has been reduced by $12.61 to $807.12, as analysts cite a mix of positive segment momentum alongside cautious outlooks on future growth and margins.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst sentiment on Intuit is divided, with multiple firms adjusting their price targets and highlighting both positive execution and ongoing risks regarding the company’s growth trajectory.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see strong momentum in the Credit Karma segment and point to external financial data as a signal of potential upside in upcoming quarterly results.
• Several believe Intuit’s core business segments, such as Consumer Tax and mid-market, continue to experience healthy, fundamental growth and resilient margin expansion.
• Some note that despite conservative initial guidance for fiscal 2026, management’s history of lowballing estimates provides room for positive earnings surprises.
• There is continued optimism that execution on core growth initiatives will drive valuation upside, and some analysts advocate buying the stock during periods of weakness.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts remain cautious regarding the company’s fiscal 2026 guidance, which was delivered below consensus and may potentially dampen near-term sentiment.
• Outlooks are clouded by persistent challenges in the Mailchimp segment, with increased headwinds and revenue contraction impacting overall growth forecasts.
• Concerns also center on moderating growth of the Global Business Solutions Group, seen as a possible explanation for the stock’s post-earnings weakness.
• Heightened competition and tougher year-over-year pricing comparisons may pose risks to both revenue and margin expansion targets going forward.

What's in the News

• The IRS is ending its free Direct File tax program and will shift focus to the Free File partnership with private providers. This move could potentially benefit companies like Intuit and H&R Block (The Wall Street Journal).
• Intuit announced major AI and Agentic AI innovations across Credit Karma and TurboTax, offering done-for-you finance management along with new tools such as Credit Spark, Debt Assistant, Tax Assistant, and Refund Assistant.
• Intuit unveiled the launch of Intuit Accountant Suite, an AI-native platform that provides accounting firms with a unified solution for client and firm management, powered by the Intuit Intelligence system.
• Intuit formed a strategic partnership with Aprio, aiming to help mid-market businesses scale more efficiently by combining the Intuit Enterprise Suite with Aprio’s advisory services.
• Recent updates include expanding Intuit’s share buyback program by $3.2 billion and announcing a quarterly dividend of $1.20 per share, payable in October 2025.

Valuation Changes

• The consensus analyst price target has decreased modestly, moving from $819.73 to $807.12.
• The discount rate has risen slightly, from 8.50% to 8.56%.
• The revenue growth projection has increased marginally, shifting from 12.67% to 12.72%.
• The net profit margin has edged down fractionally, from 22.89% to 22.87%.
• The future P/E ratio estimate has declined incrementally, from 46.53x to 46.03x.